Most eyes are on the headline number, but that's not what one should be watching. The important number is Real Final Sales (RFS). It's the true bottom line number for tge economy.
I am confident a recession is underway, but I am not confident as to the start month.
Global equity funds faced a second straight week of outflows in the week to July 6, as investors remained concerned about a global economic slowdown and recession risks due to interest rate hikes by major central banks.
People always blame presidents for high gas prices. But rising interest rates are also pushing up the monthly cost of having a car.
Some 44% of adults polled by the U.K. recently said they were buying less food, as the pain from higher prices spreads beyond less-developed nations.
The farmers are protesting due to their outrage over new government regulations that will force them to reduce their nitrogen fertiliser compounds, leading to a reduced number of their livestock, ultimately causing bankruptcy in family-owned businesses.
Protests are building in Africa over surging fuel costs that have governments scrambling over how to respond.
German intransigence could mean a summer of discontent for European debt markets.
Terms of trade in Europe set to suffer from higher energy prices...
Investors are hoarding cash and hiding in US Treasuries as they dump equities amid fears that the US economy is headed for a recession.
A quarter-trillion dollar pile of distressed debt is threatening to drag the developing world into a historic cascade of defaults.
With even permabull economists conceding that the US economy is slowing rapidly and today's payrolls report will show a big decline, moments ago the BLS confirmed yet again that the monthly payrolls number is nothing but a politically mandated homework assignment, when - at a time when US GDP is set to decline for two quarters in a row - it reported that in June US payrolls rose by 372K, smashing expectations of 268K, coming well above the whisper number of 245K, and trouncing Goldman's preferred payrolls range of 175-250K.
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 250,000 in June, according to Dow Jones estimates.
Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller on Thursday said he backs big increases in a key U.S. interest rate over the next several months to drive U.S. inflation lower and make sure the public doesn't come to expect rapidly rising prices.
“[O]ver the long run the Fed will most likely chart a middle course that will take the form of stagflation.”
The action in futures followed a winning session Thursday in which the S&P 500 posted a four-day positive streak, matching its longest of the year thus far.
The shooting of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former PM, has sent shock waves through the country where gun violence is extremely rare.
According to the BLS, the economy added 372k jobs in June. This exceeded the 250k market expectations and seems to indicate the labor market is more resilient than the rest of the economy which the Atlanta Fed currently forecasts as being already in recession. While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong job market will make it harder for the Fed to bring down inflation.And there are some signs of weakness when you dig into the data - particularly the revisions.
The Federal Reserve is putting on quite the tough guy act. Everybody is convinced the central bank is going to keep up the inflation fight even if the economy gets shaky. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the Fed's hawkish messaging and wonders out loud if the central bankers are writing checks they can't cash.
While gold hasn’t suffered nearly as much as other asset classes this year… it still hasn’t moved higher like many expected, which has many investors asking one question: Where is the price of gold headed?
The Federal Reserve was supposed to prevent recessions that people blamed on the lack of central banking. Not surprisingly, the post-Fed recessions have been worse. Original Article: "How Bad Were Recessions before the Fed?