Precious metals news

Swiss gold exports fell in April compared to March, despite increased shipments to India and Turkey, due to a significant decline in deliveries to China and Hong Kong. Switzerland remains the leading hub for gold refining and transit, with China and India as the largest consumers. Swiss exports to India surged, reaching the highest levels since February, driven by demand from local jewellers preparing for the wedding season.

Oil prices showed a slight rebound on Wednesday but remained near a four-month low as the decision by OPEC+ to increase production later this year continued to influence market sentiment. Both U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent witnessed a decline of over 4% this week following the announcement that eight OPEC+ members would gradually phase out 2.2 million barrels per day in production cuts. Analysts, however, suggest that the current sell-off may be exaggerated, with Warren Patterson of ING noting that OPEC+ won't start boosting production until October, potentially tightening the global oil balance before then. Technical indicators also point to oversold conditions, indicating a possible bounce-back in prices in the near term, according to experts like Bob Yawger of Mizuho Securities.

Gold prices saw a slight uptick on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, as traders awaited additional economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy. Spot gold rose by 0.1% to $2,330.70 per ounce, following a 1% decline in the previous session, while U.S. gold futures also increased by 0.1% to $2,350.30. With the dollar rebounding from a near two-month low and Treasury yields remaining subdued, gold appears more appealing to investors. Market focus is on key data releases, including the ISM services report and ADP employment report scheduled for Wednesday, followed by non-farm payrolls data on Friday, to assess the state of the U.S. economy.

The majority of economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate twice this year, with the first cut expected in September. However, there remains a significant risk that the Fed may opt for only one rate cut or none at all. Recent shifts in market expectations, influenced by slower economic growth and persistent inflation concerns, have led to forecasts aligning more closely with the economists' projections, despite the Fed's cautious stance on rate adjustments. While the possibility of a rate cut in July has diminished, September remains the consensus among economists surveyed, with only a few expecting cuts earlier or at the upcoming policy meeting in June.

Private payrolls growth in May fell short of expectations, with ADP reporting an increase of 152,000 jobs, lower than the downwardly revised April figure of 188,000 and below the consensus estimate of 175,000. The services sector drove most of the hiring, while goods producers only added a net of 3,000 jobs to the total. Key sectors such as trade, transportation, and utilities led in job creation, followed by education and health services, and construction.

The dollar gained ground ahead of pivotal U.S. economic indicators, as investors anticipate key data releases and the Bank of Canada's policy meeting, which could initiate a cycle of rate cuts. Eyes are on U.S. services data, with further job figures expected later in the week. Lingering concerns over a softening U.S. economy have fueled speculation for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's meeting coincides with the European Central Bank gathering, amidst slowing annual inflation prompting expectations for a Canadian rate cut. Market sentiment suggests an 80% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada, influencing broader G10 currencies like New Zealand.

Today's market sentiment reflects a broad sell-off, with silver witnessing a notable decline of over 3% as it dips below the $30 threshold. Amidst a flight to safety across various asset classes, precious metals, which have been strong performers recently, are experiencing a overdue correction. This downward movement in silver's price signals a potential pullback that has been anticipated for some time.

The recent softening of US job openings data has fueled a global bond rally, prompting Treasury yields to drop for the fourth consecutive day, hitting 4.32%, the lowest since mid-May. The decline follows a significant slide in April's JOLTS job openings, signaling a potential cooling of the US economy. Traders are now factoring in higher chances of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, possibly starting as early as November, with Fed officials likely to address these expectations in their upcoming meeting. Despite indications for a possible September cut, uncertainties remain as the market awaits May's employment report and inflation data. Analysts suggest that the 10-year note's yield may test its low end since April 2, currently at 4.309%, amidst cautious buyer sentiment following last week's yield surge triggered by unexpected inflation data challenging the consensus for Fed rate cuts.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the number of job openings in the US shrank for the second month in a row, setting a new three-year low. As of April, there were an estimated 1.2 available jobs for every job seeker, the lowest ratio since June 2021.

Expectations for ECB rate cuts are weakening due to strong economic data, persistent inflation, and hawkish comments from ECB officials. While some economists still predict gradual reductions, robust euro-zone output and rapid wage growth may limit monetary easing. Traders have adjusted their expectations, influenced by cautious signals from ECB members who suggest fewer cuts might be prudent.

Central banks increased their gold purchases in April, with net acquisitions totaling 33 tons, a significant rebound from the 3 tons recorded in March. The rise in gold reserves was driven by broad buying from emerging market banks, despite minimal sales. This trend follows questions about whether central banks would adjust their buying behavior amid March's rapid gold price increase.

Goldman Sachs analysts view the recent OPEC+ meeting as bearish, highlighting the plan to phase out extra voluntary production cuts as a key concern. Despite various production cut extensions, the gradual unwinding of additional cuts signals potential challenges in maintaining low production, posing downside risks to Brent crude prices within the $75-90 range.

A poll by the National True Cost of Living Coalition reveals that nearly two-thirds of middle-class Americans feel financially strained and do not expect improvement. Despite strong economic indicators, many households face financial insecurity, with 65% of those earning over $60,000 and even 25% of higher-income earners expressing concerns about their financial stability.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari shared that through recent discussions, he has learned that people would prefer a recession over enduring high inflation. Speaking on the Financial Times podcast, Kashkari emphasized the deep aversion to soaring prices, a sentiment he noted from conversations with labor groups and workers.

Gold futures rose on Monday, reaching their highest level in over a week as they recovered from Friday's losses. The increase was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, which make dollar-denominated gold more attractive. August gold on Comex settled at $2,369.30 an ounce, up 1% from the previous session.

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Trading on the NYSE has just been halted due to a ”technical glitch” that sent Berkshire Hathaway to zero, and they’re claiming it’s because of issues with the limit up and limit down bands that are used to halt trading when a stock becomes too volatile. But as ZeroHedge is reporting, it may actually be due to an AI-generated analysis published to Bloomberg terminals that claimed the stock dropped 100% — causing the real-life price to respond, and manifesting the automated report’s false claims into reality:

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A technical glitch at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday caused Berkshire Hathaway's A-class shares to incorrectly appear down nearly 100%, halting trading in these shares as well as in Barrick Gold and Nuscale Power. The NYSE is investigating the issue, related to the limit up and limit down bands designed to control excessive volatility. The exact number of affected stocks is unclear. The Consolidated Tape Association, which provides real-time stock quotes, also reported an earlier failure. Trading in Berkshire Hathaway's B-class shares continued, with a slight decrease of less than 1%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has relocated over 100 tons of gold from the UK to its vaults in India, marking the first such move since 1991. This significant transfer is part of a plan that may see a similar quantity of gold brought to India in the coming months. Historically, more than half of RBI’s gold reserves were held overseas with the Bank of England and the Bank of International Settlements, but recent logistical efforts, involving extensive coordination with multiple government departments, have successfully returned a portion of these reserves to India.