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Financial Conditions Are Now 'Easier' Than Before The Fed Started Hiking: "Silliness Is Back"Aug 4, 2022 - 12:10:33 PDT
Despite an unprecedentedly fast rate-hiking cycle, and FedSpeak dedicated to a hawkish bias, the market's belief in its own self-deception that we are past 'peak inflation' and/or that a 'Fed Pivot' is imminent has - somewhat incredulously - pushed US financial conditions back to their 'easiest' levels since before The Fed started hiking rates in March...
Aug 4, 2022 - 09:53:45 PDT
In the midst of a recession, with inflation eating away an average of $6,800 in purchasing power from the incomes of families with two workers, the so-called Inflation Reduction Act would impose tax increases, manipulative federal subsidies, and price controls on every American family. The bill would deepen the growing recession, continue to depress household incomes, and will continue to increase prices.
Every year, $400 billion ends up in dumpsters, and because it cuts into corporate profits, companies can treat it as tax deductible.
Shelters across the U.S. are reporting a surge in people looking for help, with wait lists doubling or tripling in recent months. The number of homeless people outside of shelters is also probably rising, experts say. Some of them live in encampments, which have popped up in parks and other public spaces in major cities from Washington, D.C., to Seattle since the pandemic began.
The director of the nation’s largest network of food banks is seeing support dwindle as need rises: “You’re in the middle of a battle, and people are leaving the field.”
People Trying to Dodge Legal Usury: Credit Card Balances, Delinquencies and Bankruptcies in Q2Aug 4, 2022 - 08:28:34 PDT
Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) Lenders Face Tougher Reality.
The money-printing binge that started in 2008 has turned the Fed into a money-printer, not an inflation fighter. This money-printing continued even in 2021, as inflation had already begun to rage. And this created the Fed’s rock-solid credibility as an inflation arsonist.
Aug 4, 2022 - 08:17:00 PDT
Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index rose to 5.57% after rising above 6% in June 2022. Mortgage rates are up 92% under the team of Biden and Fed Chair Powell as The Fed tries to extinguish the inflation fire cause by 1) excessive Fed stimulus, 2) Biden’s anti-fossil fuel policies and 3) Biden/Congress’ reckless spending.
Aug 4, 2022 - 08:00:00 PDT
The results speak loudly. The Fed blew a DotCom bubble, a housing bubble, and an everything bubble each time hoping to make up for an alleged lack of inflation.
Despite the problems with GDP, looking at the debt to GDP ratio shows something troubling, making the comparison between now and then even more difficult to support:
In spite of the fact that real wages are going down, the cost of living is soaring, and new jobless claims are heading up at a rapid pace, and the savings rate has collapsed, what really matters to the White House, it seems, is the "technical definition" of recession. Never mind the fact that the US economy has contracted for the past two quarters, according to the federal government’s...
“We probably have another leg down as the Fed continues to raise rates,” he wrote. “I expect rates to go much higher and that means a number of companies will be in trouble and the glamorous tech stocks with no earnings and dependent on more and more cash inputs will be in trouble.” Mobius added that he won’t feel comfortable calling a bottom until he sees “complete surrender”.
Gold climbed to nearly a one-month high on Thursday buoyed by a pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, as investors awaited Friday’s July employment report report which may influence the Federal Reserve’s path of interest rate hikes.
Argentina’s new Economy Minister Sergio Massa pledged Wednesday night to stop printing money that helps fuel runaway inflation, outlining his strategy to turn around the country’s deepening crisis.
Latin America's most steady economy in the last three decades suffers a slump. Locals are turning to crypto for protection.
Brazil Lifts Rates by Half a Point to 13.75%, Flags Another Hike PossibleAug 4, 2022 - 06:09:18 PDT
Brazil’s central bank raised its key interest rate by half a percentage point and left the door open for a smaller boost in September as it shifts its focus to the outlook for inflation more than a year ahead.
Top Senate Democrats recently proposed a new $21 billion emergency supplemental funding bill to prepare for the next phase of the pandemic and other emerging diseases.
Confidence hits all-time low in CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, as weak sales outlook and inflation worry a Main Street that says recession is here.
Initial Jobless Claims Hit 8 Month Highs, Continuing Claims Jump Ahead Of Payrolls PrintAug 4, 2022 - 05:55:58 PDT
Amid a growing wave of corporate layoff announcements, the number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits rose to 260k last week (moving its 4-week average to the highest in 8 months). More problematically, continuing claims is now starting to roll notably higher at 1.416mm - the highest since April.