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July Payrolls Smash Expectations Soaring To 528K, Wages Come In Red Hot As Unemployment Rate DropsAug 5, 2022 - 05:47:38 PDT
While we are digging through the number, the report will certainly surely will boost expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, because as Bloomberg notes, "this is not at all what the Fed wanted to see. The job market if anything is getting even hotter, not cooling." The only thing that could reverse the narrative is if next week's CPI print comes in far below expectations. Developing...
Around the world, central banks have been caught out by the surge in global inflation, leaving interest rates too low for too long. But the RBA has been blunter than most in admitting its mistakes, with its own governor saying its forecasting was “embarrassing”.
Australia’s Central Bank Warns Economy To Slow Sharply As Inflation SoarsAug 5, 2022 - 05:43:27 PDT
Australia's central bank on Friday warned inflation was heading to three-decade highs requiring further hikes in interest rates that would slow growth sharply, making it tough to keep the economy on an "even keel". In its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) jacked up its forecasts for inflation, downgraded the outlook for growth...
China Halts High-Level Military Dialogue With U.S., Suspends Other CooperationAug 5, 2022 - 05:39:17 PDT
China is halting cooperation with the United States in a number of areas, including dialogue between senior-level military commanders and climate talks, in retaliation for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, it said on Friday.
Global bond funds obtained their biggest weekly inflow in nine months and purchases in money market funds also surged in the week to Aug. 3, as investors favoured safety due to worries about the risk of global recession.
The chance of “widespread civil unrest” occurring in the UK as a result of people being unable to afford to pay their bills due to the cost of living crisis is “inevitable,” according to one campaigner.
Credit Suisse Set To Slash Thousands of Jobs Despite Handing Out Hundreds Of Millions To Top TalentAug 5, 2022 - 05:24:05 PDT
Just days after it was reported that Credit Suisse was handing out hundreds of millions to retain talent, the firm is now reportedly mulling mass layoffs, with "thousands of roles globally" at risk of being cut.
In contrast, the leading western central banks — the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England — did not target or worry about money and credit, while actively promoting a major expansion to offset the impact of lockdowns and supply chain interruptions on general activity. Each of them continued the money creation drive well into the recovery and have ended up with inflation nudging double figures.
Stock futures were lower early Friday ahead of the key July jobs report.
The Treasury increased the total debt by $27B in June. Activity slowed in the latest month across all instruments, but particularly the conversion of short-term to long-term. After massive moves to extend debt maturity and shrink short-term debt by $530B over 4 months (shown below by the large negative turquoise bars), July went very quiet.
According to the BLS, the economy added 528k jobs in July, blasting past analyst estimates of 250k. The strong report comes on the heels of a Fed meeting last week that made a point to state they are hyper-focused on the job market as a sign of a weakening economy. The White House and Fed are now in lock step ignoring negative GDP growth and hanging their hat on the job market. For now, that message fits their narrative.
Jobs are on everybody's mind as the July employment report comes out. Will the labor market show more cracks? Or will it give the pundits more room to spin the idea that we're not really in a recession? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the labor market and breaks the July jobs data news as it comes out. He also talks about the "health" of the American consumer and gold's flirtation with $1,800 an ounce.
Aug 4, 2022 - 16:34:14 PDT
2022 has seen the worst inflation in 4 decades, stubbornly persistent supply chain shortages, a contracting economy that may already be in recession & one of the worst first halves of the year for financial markets.
And yet the US dollar is the strongest it has been in 20 years.
MAJOR OIL INDUSTRY FAILURE: The Collapse Of Capital Investment Spells Big Trouble For Future ProductionAugust 5, 2022
The market better be prepared for a significant decline in global oil production as the major oil companies' capital investment falls off a cliff... and I'm not exaggerating. While the top major oil companies reported record profits, they aren't investing much of their cash from operations in exploration or future production...
Aug 4, 2022 - 12:55:38 PDT
Gold prices finished 1.7% higher on Thursday to reclaim a footing above the key $1,800 mark, as investors focused on the chances of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession. December gold closed up 1.7% to settle at $1,806.90 an ounce on Comex, the highest finish for the most-active contract since June 30, according to FactSet data.
Investors are worried that the actual amount of physical silver available in LBMA vaults may be much less than projected...
Call it the dominant factor. Of course, a low-entropy input to this growth was that the dollar had a stable definition from the late 18th century through the first third of the 20th as 1/20.67 of a gold ounce. Love or hate the gold standard, it cannot be denied that it personified dollar-price stability. And with the dollar stable, inflation wasn’t a problem. Substantial growth, but no inflation. Please keep it in mind given the modern discussion of “inflation.”
Trip Back to Reality Starts: Mortgages, HELOCs, Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q2Aug 4, 2022 - 12:41:19 PDT
Forbearance and pandemic cash run out. But a lot of fun was had by all.
Aug 4, 2022 - 12:29:58 PDT
He highlighted the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy into a slowing economy. The International Monetary Fund’s recent forecast shows all major areas of the global economy are slowing, calling conditions “gloomy and uncertain.”
Insiders Are Dumping The Most Stocks Since January As Retail Buying-Panic Re-EmergesAug 4, 2022 - 12:28:43 PDT
From the mid-June lows, stocks have soared on the back of various narratives from 'peak inflation' to 'Fed pivot imminent' - flip-flopping to 'bad news is great news' and sending the Nasdaq up 20% as bond yields plunge under the threat of recession (whether you say the word or not).