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ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
The energy-related parts of the bill are expected to cost $369 billion. That’s an increase of more than 20 percent over the cost estimates published just a few weeks earlier. (Talk about inflation!) In short, this deal may be a long way from becoming law. But whether it becomes law or not, it shows again that the Washington Swamp will always deliver to special interests.
Aug 5, 2022 - 12:14:37 PDT
The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.
Aug 5, 2022 - 12:12:04 PDT
Amid talks of a food shortage, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposes adding more regulation on the agriculture sector. It could put significant financial burden on small, family-owned farms and could lead to lower food production in the United States.
Aug 5, 2022 - 12:04:29 PDT
The economy added a much higher than expected 528,000. This follows a much higher than expected 372,000 jobs in June. But the discrepancy between jobs and employment is amazing.
"Politics is compromise. Half a loaf is better than no loaf at all. Price stability is the half-loaf of monetary policy rules. It seems foolish to go hungry simply because haute cuisine is unaffordable."
"Americans should be alarmed. The bill has the potential to handcuff innovation in one of the most critical and successful sectors of the American economy."
The real economy is faltering and stagflation has embedded, paving way for the worst inflation and falling real growth since the 1970s.
Brent Johnson, portfolio manager at Santiago Capital, returns for Part 2 of our interview with him to lay out the 4 assets he favors most given the strong US dollar.
Cash, gold, productive land & blue-chip US equities are the assets he would "go to war with" -- though in the near term, he recommends waiting for the current bear market to bottom out before loading up on equities.
Aug 5, 2022 - 08:45:14 PDT
And the “sizzling” jobs report isn’t feeling any love in the bond market where the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) deepened its inversion to -37.593 basis points, a drop of -1.331 BPS. Note that the 10Y-2Y curve falls below 0% just prior to every recession.
Aug 5, 2022 - 08:41:48 PDT
With inflation climbing to multi-decade highs and price pressures broadening out, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that there's now a "substantial risk" that high inflation becomes a more permanent fixture and that expectations around future rates of inflation could become unmoored and drive a wage-price spiral.
Some economists — including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers — say Powell is being much too optimistic about the Fed’s ability to tame prices without pushing unemployment much higher. The implication: The Fed chief, who has sought to elevate the central bank’s focus on boosting the labor market, may be forced to accept millions of job losses and a significant recession to curb inflation.
After more than a decade of mostly losing out, the Internal Revenue Service may finally get the cash infusion it's long wanted in the economic package that Democrats are working furiously to push through Congress before their August break.
Sinema Signs Off On Reconciliation Bill After Dems Agree To Protect Private Equity BillionairesAug 5, 2022 - 08:35:14 PDT
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema - the lone Democrat holdout on the Biden administration's revamped reconciliation bill - has finally signed off on it, after Democrats agreed to preserve the so-called carried interest loophole that allows investment managers (like her former bosses) to shield the majority of their income from higher taxes.
How higher mortgage rates—and frustration—are changing the playbook for sellers.
Aug 5, 2022 - 07:41:05 PDT
Housing will be another big bust this quarter. And durable goods rate to follow housing. Manufacturing rates to be negative. Hopes for the quarter rest solely on consumer spending and falling inflation. But don't count on strong retail sales. Add it all up and you have a third quarter of negative GDP.
Something Snaps: Multiple Jobholders Hit All Time High As Unexplained 1.8 Million Jobs Gap EmergesAug 5, 2022 - 07:36:18 PDT
Something very odd emerges for the second month in a row when looking at the July payrolls report.
Why the Job Report Is So Much Better Than Any Estimate and Seems Inconsistent Is a Question To AskAug 5, 2022 - 07:07:26 PDT
The Household survey “only” shows 179k jobs and still shows job losses last month. The divergence continues to grow between the Establishment and the Household (as well as JOLTs data and Unemployment Insurance Claims).
Fed’s QT: Total Assets Drop by $91 Billion from Peak (QE created money, QT Destroys Money)Aug 5, 2022 - 06:04:41 PDT
What the Fed did in details and charts.
Market Futures Slide After Strong Jobs Report Likely To Keep Fed in Hiking ModeAug 5, 2022 - 06:01:46 PDT
Stock futures fell Friday after the July jobs report was much better than expected, showing a strong labor market that will likely mean more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.