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Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Soar As Sliding-CPI Sparks Dovish Dump In Rate-Hike OddsAug 10, 2022 - 06:46:11 PDT
A colder than expected CPI print - driven by slowing energy price gains offsetting continued gains in shelter costs - prompted an immediate knee jerk reaction sending rate-hike odds tumbling. September went from pricing in an 80% chance of a 75bps hike to around 30% chance instantly...
The cloak makes the dagger so much more dangerous. For investors who don’t want to believe in a recession, the cloak causes them to stroll through markets with less wariness..
Aug 10, 2022 - 05:52:18 PDT
Burry painted a bleak outlook for the rest of the year, and warned the mindless speculation in markets reminded him of the dot-com bubble.
Stocks are rallying on hopes that Jerome Powell pivots. Are they relying on the Fed to act as they did before inflation was a problem?
Raging inflation ends an absurdity.
US Consumer Price Inflation Slows In July, Real Wages Continue To TumbleAug 10, 2022 - 05:37:26 PDT
Is this drop in CPI big enough to signal a Fed pivot? While analysts expected another rise on a MoM basis, the headline US Consumer Price Inflation was expected to slow from +9.1% YoY to +8.7% YoY in July, but it actually slowed significantly more than expected to +8.5% Yoy (flat MoM). This is the end of a 16 month streak of MoM gains...
Consumer Prices Rose 8.5% in July, Less Than Expected As Inflation Pressures Ease a BitAug 10, 2022 - 05:35:12 PDT
The consumer price index, a measure of inflation, was expected to rise 8.7% in July from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates. Core inflation excluding food and energy was forecast to increase 6.1%.
Americans may finally be catching a break from relentlessly surging prices — if just a slight one — even as inflation is expected to remain painfully high for months. Thanks largely to falling gas prices , the government’s inflation report for July, to be released Wednesday morning, is expected to show that prices jumped 8.7% from a year earlier — still a sizzling pace but a slowdown from...
The US Treasury yield curve could invert more deeply than at any time since the 1980s, if Bank of America’s estimates about the impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations are accurate.
The People’s Bank of China said it will safeguard the economy against inflation threats, pledging to avoid massive stimulus and excessive money printing to spur growth.
Euro Zone Yields Slip Ahead of Inflation Data, Markets Fully Price a 50bps ECB HikeAug 10, 2022 - 05:25:38 PDT
Euro zone bond yields crept lower on Wednesday ahead of hotly anticipated U.S. inflation data as Refinitiv data showed that traders have priced in a second consecutive 50 basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank at its September meeting. Euro zone money markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a 50 basis-point hike from the ECB, up from 95% on Tuesday...
The report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that prices rose at a much slower pace in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, even though food inflation is expected to remain elevated. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Consumer Price Index to show year-on-year headline inflation of 8.7%, far above the Fed's target of 2%, but lower than last month's 9.1%...
As expected, the Consumer Price index cooled a bit thanks to falling gasoline prices. The question is will this give the Federal Reserve the excuse it needs bow out of the inflation fight?The Consumer Price Index for July was up 8.5% year-on-year. That was down from June's 9.1% print and slightly below the 8.7% expectation. Of course, an 8.5% increase in prices over the course of a year is still extremely hot.
The Federal Reserve is all-in on the inflation fight.Or is it?While everybody focuses on interest rate cuts, the promised Fed balance sheet reduction isn't going quite as promised.
With Pan American Silver being down 9% in After Hours Trading, it's a perfect example of why it is crucial NOT TO HOLD stocks during earnings season, especially when the overall market fundamentals are pointing negative. While I thought that the silver miners would not perform well in the second quarter...
Gold Ends at Six-Week High, Topping $1,812 As Investors Await Inflation Report: MWAug 9, 2022 - 13:01:31 PDT
Gold futures post their highest close since late June, as stocks and the dollar pull back ahead of Wednesday's consumer-price index report on inflation.
Unfortunately, there’s no end in sight to the New Great Depression.
The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet, albeit at a snail’s pace. Let’s see how they’ve done compared to last month. Per latest data release: On July 6 the US Treasury (UST) balance was $5,744,344,000,000. The balance on August 3 now stands at $5,719,119,000,000, for a reduction of roughly $25.2 billion.On July 6 the Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) balance was...
Aug 9, 2022 - 12:32:22 PDT
The Fed's decade's-long effort to produce sustained inflation was a remarkable "success". The Fed never bothered to take a bow. Instead, it's chasing its tail.
Aug 9, 2022 - 12:25:22 PDT
“I was into pain reduction and mind expansion, but what I’ve ended up with is pain expansion and mind reduction. Everything hurts now, and nothing makes sense.“ — Carrie Fisher, Postcards from the Edge So, Davos finally got the mini-me version of Build Back Better through a deeply divided Senate over the weekend. It’s a […]