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The price of deeper out-of-the-money insurance in equities is falling, implying lower demand for crash insurance. This suggests the market believes the Fed put is getting closer.
Brent Neiman, a counselor to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, urged China to "take part in coordinated debt relief for vulnerable nations to avoid the specter of a systemic sovereign-debt crisis," Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push to de-dollarize the Russian economy is paving the way for the Chinese yuan to play a larger role in the country.
On September 27, I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August. My comment then was "I highly doubt this number will survive revisions.” One of my reasons was that new home sales are counted at contract signing whereas existing home sales are counted at closing. Cancellations have been huge.
The headline from the UMich Sentiment survey continues to be inflation expectations which fell once again in September's final data to 4.7%.However, that is above expectations of 4.6% and above the flash print of 4.6% from early September.
...another recession red flag...
Sep 30, 2022 - 06:58:23 PDT
Today’s core PCE deflator reading of 4.9% YoY shows that the inflation surge is not over. With a core PCE deflator of 4.9%, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Fed Funds Target Rate should be at 9.65%, far below its current level of 3.25%. So, IFF The Fed is following any sort of rule, rates should continue to soar.…
It's amazing that people think this economy is doing well when it's obvious that it isn't.
Fed’s Preferred Gauge Shows Inflation Accelerated Even More Than Expected in AugustSep 30, 2022 - 05:52:24 PDT
The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.
More Bad News for House Buyers: Mortgage Rates March Toward 7%, Reaching Highest Since 2007: MWSep 30, 2022 - 05:48:08 PDT
The 30-year mortgage rate is averaging 6.7%, Freddie Mac said in its latest weekly survey on Thursday.
Market Instability Replaces Inflation As the Biggest Risk, Raising Chances of a Fed Pivot: MWSep 30, 2022 - 05:42:14 PDT
Overloaded debt in the financial system can spread like a virus.
Earlier this week in Germany and the Czech Republic, tens of thousands took to the streets to demand an end to Russia sanctions and the start of the NordStream II pipeline. Then someone blew it up. With better EU/Russia commercial ties no longer an option, how much stronger will protests become? Also today, Kamala Harris tries her hand at foreign policy at the Korea DMZ...with predictable result.
The Fed's interest rate hikes have fueled market turmoil by boosting the value of the dollar and feeding higher borrowing costs.
$32Trillion in Wordwide Stock Market Value Has Been Destroyed Since Nov. 2021Sep 30, 2022 - 05:29:53 PDT
A pension-fund strategy that aims to reduce volatility without lowering returns created the first crack in the financial system after one of the fastest interest-rate rises in decades.
Foodflation Is a Global Rising Danger. What’s Happening in Germany Is Nothing Short of DevastatingSep 30, 2022 - 05:24:11 PDT
Good Morning from #Germany, where supermarket prices are rising much faster than in other Eurozone countries. Food CPI jumped 19% YoY in Sep, the highest food price #inflation since the start of the statistic.
nflation in the euro area crossed into double-digit territory this month following a significant rise in consumer price growth in Germany, the currency area’s biggest economy. The preliminary reading from the EU statistics office showed Eurozone headline annual inflation spiking to a record 10.0%, a rise of nearly a full percentage point from August’s mark of 9.1%. the previous all-time high. Economists had forecast an increase to only 9.5%.
The Fed has found it easier to raise rates than shrink its balance sheet. September was supposed to be the month when the Fed got serious about shrinking the balance sheet. After a few months of warming up with $47.5B monthly reductions, the Fed was going to step up in September and shrink by $95B ($60B in Treasuries and $35B in MBS).That didn't happen.
With a hurricane barreling toward his home, Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey called an audible and recorded this week's show ahead of time. And since the hurricane is in the news, as well as top-of-mind for his family, he uses it as a jumping-off point to talk about some economics including the concept of "price gouging" and the "broken window fallacy. He also touches on dollar strength and how it's impacting the gold and silver markets.
I typically start this analysis with gold, but the action in the platinum market is impossible to ignore. The next four charts should tell you everything you need to know.First, similar to gold and silver, platinum has seen a much higher delivery volume since the pandemic struck in 2020.