Gold has all the potential to go unprecedentedly high. But silver will be gold on
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Oct 18, 2022 - 08:23:16 PDT
In short, the Repo market is a window into what’s going on behind the scenes. As Bidenflation soars, and The Fed counterattacks, we see Fed’s repo market remains elevated. Note that The Fed’s balance sheet (orange line) is only slowly being reduced.
Oct 18, 2022 - 08:16:31 PDT
"The Fed’s chief task is to restore its lost credibility. In retrospect, the switch to average inflation targeting was a mistake. It gave the Fed plausible deniability for noisier, less predictable policy." ~ Alexander William Salter
Gary Cohn on Inflation Relief: ‘We’re Going To Have To See Job Destruction’Oct 18, 2022 - 08:10:56 PDT
Significant job losses is something Wall Street has been bracing for in recent months. At the Federal Open Market Committee press conference in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the jobs market will have to suffer for consumer prices to fall.
China’s state banks stepped up selling of the dollar on Monday, supporting the renminbi versus the rising United States currency as the Chinese Communist celebration’s 20th congress got under method in Beijing. Traders in China stated big state-run banks were switching renminbi for United States dollars in the nation’s forwards market, then offering the dollars...
Fed rate hikes are approaching the breaking point as cracks appear in the financial underpinnings which previously led to instability. As noted in “Inflation Will Become Deflation,” the Fed’s more considerable threat remains an economic or credit crisis. History is clear that the Fed’s current actions are once again behind the curve. Each rate hike puts the Fed closer to the unwanted “event horizon.”
The lead chart is from my October 14 post GDPNow Forecast Unfazed by Weak Retail Sales and Strong Inflation Weak retail sales did not cause a dip in the forecast. I asked Pat Higgins if he could shed any more light on that early October surge. Here's his reply:
Oct 18, 2022 - 07:34:09 PDT
RentCafe reports 101 Zip Codes Switch From Homeowner to Renter Majority.
The Inflation Problem Can’t Be Solved Without Withdrawing Liquidity From the Financial SystemOct 18, 2022 - 07:12:36 PDT
Therein lies the dilemma. If the Fed runs down the SOMA portfolio too much, they will break something in the market. If they don’t, we are stuck with inflation.
Mohamed El-Erian Says It’s Getting Harder To Justify Independent Fed: BloombergOct 18, 2022 - 06:40:31 PDT
Allianz SE chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian says on Twitter that an independent Federal Reserve is critical to the US economy but that it is getting harder to justify that independence after “four big operational errors.”
Gold fluctuated between gains and losses as investors weighed the increasing risk of a global recession against the Federal Reserve’s tightening path.
Oct 18, 2022 - 05:40:00 PDT
The Chinese leader's speech reflects obsession with external threats and Taiwan “reunification”
“A strong dollar makes a bad situation worse in the rest of the world,’’ says Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University. Many economists worry that the sharp rise of the dollar is increasing the likelihood of a global recession sometime next year.
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Tuesday that Japan would take appropriate and decisive action against excessive, speculator-driven currency moves, keeping alive the possibility of more market intervention after the yen hit a new 32-year low.
Earnings have revealed a divide between lenders on deposit pressures, though maybe not as much as the market thinks.
Foreign bank units have been accumulating cash reserves at the Federal Reserve, likely reflecting concerns that a dollar funding crunch could be looming as the U.S. central bank reduces its balance sheet and global economies face recession risks.
The European Central Bank must continue to rapidly roll back monetary support and not halt interest-rate increases too early, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.
Government Bonds No Safe Haven in Central Bank-Driven Recession -BlackRockOct 18, 2022 - 05:27:35 PDT
Government bonds may not offer much protection in a recession if surging inflation pressures central banks to continue tightening monetary policy, the BlackRock Investment Institute said.
The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has veteran fund manager Mark Mobius warning that interest rates will soar to 9%.
Will inflation go back to normal anytime soon? Bank of America doesn’t believe so. “Historically, it takes an average of 10 years for a developed economy to return to 2% inflation [once] the 5% threshold is breached,” the bank says in a recent note.
Physical metal has continued to drain from COMEX vaults. This is particularly true for silver, which now has 17.4 paper ounces for every registered ounce.This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.