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Oct 28, 2022 - 08:26:51 PDT
Amid an intensifying spat with the US on oil production, Saudi Arabia has expressed its "desire" to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a move Chinese experts view as a setback for Washington's "oil for security" approach toward the Middle East and its increasingly reckless interference in other countries' affairs.
Calls for Biden to socialize industry have moved quickly from fringe to mainstream...
Oct 28, 2022 - 07:33:29 PDT
"We are getting energy completely wrong and it's made the environment worse."
Eventually, we will transition because we have to. But not as fast as expected, and certainly not without pain. Meanwhile, policy missteps by the US, EU, and California made the transition worse.
After ECI and Core PCE signaled no end to The Fed's nemesis, this morning's UMich survey (final data for October) is the last chance to show that inflation expectations are being managed before next week's FOMC meeting.
Following the declines in new- and existing-home sales, analysts (unsurprisingly) expected to see pending home sales drop for the 10th month of the last 11. They were right BUT the magnitude was remarkable.
Oct 28, 2022 - 07:11:46 PDT
The US mortgage market is broken. By Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal (Bloomberg) — To understand the highest mortgage rates in two decades, look to the intricacies of the market for bonds ba…
George discusses the Economic Drivers that are impacting the housing market.
Federal Reserve officials will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance next week, laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching 5% by March 2023, moves that seem likely to lead to a US and global recession, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said.The Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive meeting when policymakers...
The Fed's next crisis is brewing. Unlike 2008, where "subprime mortgages" crippled banks, this time its the $27 Trillion Treasury market.
Americans' Savings Rate Plunges Near Record Lows As Inflation Overwhelms Income GrowthOct 28, 2022 - 05:56:48 PDT
Americans' personal incomes and spending were expected to increase MoM in September (on a nominal basis) and they did with spending rising more than expected (+0.6% MoM vs +0.5% exp)
December Rate Hike Odds Rise After Fed's Favorite Inflation Signals Show No Signs Of SlowingOct 28, 2022 - 05:55:43 PDT
First, PCE Deflator (which we have long known is The Fed's favorite inflation indicator) is expected to accelerate...
“It’s very unusual to see that indicator basically stall outside of a recession period -- that’s telling,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, referring to the final-demand indicator. “That means the US economy beneath the surface is losing steam.”
A heap of distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow.
Many of the world’s biggest powers are now intent on undermining one another, with unsettling economic implications.
The International Monetary Fund cut Asia's economic forecasts on Friday as global monetary tightening, rising inflation blamed on the war in Ukraine, and China's sharp slowdown dampened the region's recovery prospects. While inflation in Asia remains subdued compared with other regions, most central banks must continue raising interest rates to ensure inflation expectations...
The euro tumbled below parity against the dollar on Thursday night after the European Central Bank (ECB) vowed to continue its money printing programme despite surging inflation.
The Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest rates amid fresh government support, pushing back against lingering market speculation it will adjust policy as it continues to predict inflation will cool below 2% next year.
After a months-long effort to prop up the yuan, the People’s Bank of China has cycled through most of its policy tools, leaving it with some tough choices.
China’s central bank pumped cash into the banking system this week to meet an increased demand to fund tax payments and also boost bruised sentiment in the aftermath of the party congress.
Stocks Usually Do Well After the Midterms. Not This Time, Forecasts BlackRockOct 28, 2022 - 05:43:22 PDT
Poorly received results from the likes of Meta (META) Alphabet (GOOG) Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) et al saw nearly $1 trillion at one point chopped of the big tech valuations this week, according to the FT. Well, not this time says the team of analysts at BlackRock led by Wei Li, global chief investment strategist. Stocks tend to do well after the U.S. midterms, they note,...