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I view stagflation as a protracted period of high inflation, below-potential economic growth, and rising unemployment. In the stagflation of the late 1970s, the Fed was, indeed, a key actor. Convinced that idiosyncratic supply-side disruptions like energy and food shocks should not be addressed by monetary policy, Burns erred on the side of excessive accommodation, allowing the real federal funds rate to fall deeply into negative territory from late 1974 to early 1978, setting the stage for the Great Inflation that was to come.
Nov 1, 2022 - 12:45:48 PDT
Soaring inflation is the top issue for a lot of voters heading into the midterms, with most saying Republicans would do a better job of handling the problem. Indeed, Republican candidates are taking full advantage of voter concern about inflation by hammering Democrats on the issue and pushing their own ideas to fight inflation, such...
Mortgage giant revises its forecast to reflect a lower-than-anticipated GDP output this year...
Fed’s Next Move Could Create Market ‘Volatility, Uncertainty,’ Ex-Kansas City Fed President WarnsNov 1, 2022 - 12:39:22 PDT
"I don't think the Fed has an endpoint in mind because they don't know where inflation is going from here," Hoenig said in an interview...
The financial markets are now experiencing their 3rd “the Fed is about to pivot” delusion. Ever since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022, the financial media and social media have been abuzz with claims that the Fed will eventually “pivot,” meaning that the Fed will abandon its tightening and start easing by cutting rates or introducing Quantitative Easing (QE).
Here we go again! Since the Covid-related US mortgage foreclosure moratorium ended in June 2022, we are seeing mortgage foreclosure starts rising as The Fed tightens its monetary policy. Give me an…
Nov 1, 2022 - 12:23:07 PDT
The Money Supply Was Stimulated In Early 2020 When Covid Was Launched. The Money Supply Grew On Average Three Times Faster Than It Should Have In Order To Meet A 2 Percent Inflation Target. As A Result, We Had A Lot Of Inflation.
Experts predict prices will be elevated 'well into the first half of 2024...
I describe the roundtrip process in which Russian oil refined in Italy makes its way to to the US. It's a real hoot.
The International Energy Forum believes the price of Brent could easily break above $100 when the EU embargo on Russian oil comes into effect. The IEF believes the oil market could lose anywhere between 1 million and 3 million barrels per day when the sanctions take effect.
Two bombshell reports by the Associated Press and Washington Post Monday and Tuesday have confirmed that the United States has boots on the ground in the Ukraine conflict. Crucially, these troops are performing tasks separate from mere embassy security.
Questions and suspicions on whether US would shift its approach to Ukraine have been raised, as more analysts noticed the recently disclosed phone call indicating US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's discord over military assistance and some Republicans vowed to cut aid to Ukraine if they take control of Congress.
Black Hole or Shock Absorber: How Does a Free-Market Economy Respond to Crises?Nov 1, 2022 - 11:32:03 PDT
Mainstream economists view the economy as fickle, unstable, and always in danger of utter collapse.
Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001, he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
When Federal Reserve officials last met to set US monetary policy, Chairman Jay Powell made it clear that a recession in the world’s largest economy could not be ruled out. Since the Fed’s last meeting, there have been signs that the housing market is weakening as consumer demand begins to decline, but new inflation data shows that price pressures continue to mount and labor costs have risen.
Why Did Inflation Surge to a 40-Year High? Here Are 4 Causes of the Worst Monetary Policy MistakesNov 1, 2022 - 10:45:03 PDT
Market Watch: The first was being unaware that the foundation of the U.S. banking system had been eroded away by complex mortgage securities carrying high credit ratings, but which turned out to be toxic during a broad housing downturn. The resulting meltdown in valuations caused the global financial crisis in 2008 that hobbled the U.S. economy for years.
Biden Scrambles To Paint Misleading Picture of Economy One Week From the MidtermsNov 1, 2022 - 10:42:43 PDT
However, the average price of gasoline nationwide was $2.39 a gallon on Jan. 25, 2021, roughly 48% of what Biden claimed it was, according to the Energy Information Administration. The current average pump price nationwide sits at $3.76 per gallon, 57% higher than when Biden took office, according to AAA data.
It is relatively common that what should be recognized as a warning flag of major trouble is often ignored until things get so bad that it is almost impossible not to notice (unless one is mightily determined not to see them).
Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar In 2nd Best Month Of 2022, Despite Plunge In Hiring, QuitsNov 1, 2022 - 08:30:25 PDT
Last month was a big surprise: as readers will recall, for the month of July, the BLS did not yet get the memo, and instead "Job Openings Unexpectedly Surged To Two For Every Unemployed Worker, Crashing Fed's Plans To Nuke The Job Market." Needless to say that made no sense, and as we warned at the time "this is not the first time the DOL was forced to manipulate data...
My concern is that I feel like socialists are taking over. They're marching through the institutions. They're taking everything over and taking over education. It looks like they've taken over a lot of the corporations. It looks like they've taken over the military. And it's just continuing. I'm so deeply concerned about it. I believe in liberty and capitalism. Those are my twin values.