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    Fatter Tails for US Economy Mean Larger Swings: UBS
Nov 8, 2022 - 11:49:45 PST
The S&P 500 has gained 6.2% so far this quarter after sliding nearly 27% in the first three quarters of the year. The bounce is largely based on speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its rate hikes, even as the latest FOMC meeting suggests that policy rates could remain elevated for longer.
California cities and the state could see their annual pension bills rise as much as 12% because high inflation will lead to cost-of-living adjustments for retirees and pay increases for current public employees.
    Millions To Receive Latest Cost-of-Living Payment
Nov 8, 2022 - 11:36:13 PST
The support, totalling £650, is for those across the UK on certain benefits, including Universal Credit and pension credit. It is the largest part of direct financial assistance from the government to tackle costs such as energy bills.
Financial Service: To avoid going into debt this holiday season, consumers are being smarter about budgeting in advance and are more likely to favor a BNPL approach to cover holiday expenses over opening a new credit card. Though shoppers are feeling inflation’s pinch, spending levels will look similar to last year.
Income jumped by $105 billion to a record $1.04 trillion as more people worked and earned higher wages, and contributed more.
Yes, this is an economic double whammy! First, according to Black Knight, US home values declined -2.6% over the past three months. Second, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains near 1980s low…
With tech companies "unexpectedly" firing thousands of highly-paid, woke millennials as the US economy crumbles into the worst recession since Lehman...
    The Unintended Consequences of Unintended Consequences
Nov 8, 2022 - 08:52:39 PST
Decades of central bank distortions and regulatory / market-share capture by cartels and monopolies have completely gutted "markets," destroying their self-correcting dynamics.
Gold suddenly jumped unexpectedly in the last 5 minutes, recording a daily high of $1698, shy of breaking the $1700 figure, which could open the door to pose a challenge to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1716.96. If the XAUUSD clears the latter, that will open the door toward the 200-day EMA at $1805.
DNB is exploring a revaluation of its large gold reserves as a "solvency backstop." If the Dutch are having to do this, we can be sure that weaker central banks in the ECB network are in worse shape. It is likely that gold reserves will have to be mobilised in several states to boost equity capital. The barbarous relic may get its revenge on fiat paper.
Gold is down 18% since March, but UBS says it has major upside looking ahead and recommends investors go long on the precious metal.
Gold prices have risen 62% of the time over the six months following midterm elections, with a median return of 2%, according to a World Gold Council report using data going back to 1970.
    Entering the Deflation Danger Zone
Nov 8, 2022 - 06:01:40 PST
It appears that the financial system is entering a dangerous period where the consequences of all the central-bank-induced distortions that have happened over the past two decades are finally being evened out. It will pay to stay alert over the next few months.
    Debt-Deflation Risks Rising in Eurozone
Nov 8, 2022 - 06:00:47 PST
The chart shows that there is scope for many more banks to tighten credit standards and this is what we anticipate as social mood continues to trend negatively. As credit conditions become ever tighter, expect defaults to rise and debt to deflate.
Global inflation could be peaking, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said, but she warned that consumers were at risk of facing persistent pressure from rising living costs due to a breakdown in world supply chains.
    U.S. Small Business Sentiment Falls in October: NFIB
Nov 8, 2022 - 05:57:16 PST
U.S. small-business confidence edged down in October as stubbornly high inflation weighed on sentiment and more owners forecast a deteriorating outlook for the economy, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet drawdown has exacerbated low liquidity and high volatility in the $20-trillion U.S. Treasury debt market, raising questions on whether the Fed needs to re-think this strategy.
US credit-card balances surged to a record in the third quarter as banks bet that consumers with less-than-stellar credit will be able to handle more debt.
Subprime borrowers in particular are feeling the impact of higher prices for both new and used vehicles.
Japan's foreign reserves extended declines in October, following the previous month's record drop, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday, reflecting the largest ever amount of yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention.