Gold has all the potential to go unprecedentedly high. But silver will be gold on
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The global economy is stuttering, and some of the world’s biggest names are already laying off thousands of employees.
The residential real estate market has screeched to a halt, and some economists believe home prices are about to drop significantly.
Fed Rollercoaster! Deutsche Bank, my former employer, said that The Fed will slash rates by 200 basis points by mid-2024 after staying hawkish in the short term. Deutsche Bank increased its view …
Few seem alive to the potentially consequential financial risks arising from uncertainties evolving in China.
"Recession Is Coming" As Fed "Is Going Too Crazy" - Dallas Fed Respondents Slam US Economic OutlookNov 28, 2022 - 09:59:36 PST
Under the hood, several other measures of manufacturing activity indicated contraction this month. The new orders index plummeted to -20.9 - its sixth month in a row in negative territory and lowest reading since May 2020. The growth rate of orders index dropped seven points to -19.9. The capacity utilization index turned negative, falling from 9.1 to -3.4, and the shipments index posted a second consecutive negative reading at -7.5, down from -1.6 in October.
Nearly every year, debt rises more than the alleged deficit. This is not a fiscal vs. calendar year distortion, but an ongoing deficit lie. For example, there were alleged budget surpluses in four consecutive years, 1998 through 2001. Yet debt only fell once, in the year 2000, by 113.875 billion vs a purported budget surplus of $236.241 billion.
Total liabilities dropped by $344 billion since QT began. Big shifts between liabilities: reserves already plunged by $1.12 trillion.
Consumer Bankruptcies, Foreclosures, Delinquencies, and Collections: Free Money Still Doing the JobNov 28, 2022 - 07:49:11 PST
Powell said many times consumers can take tightening because loan distress is at historic lows. What consumers cannot take for long is raging inflation.
China’s Communist Party runs the world’s most extensive surveillance and police state, so any public protest against its policies takes courage and runs great personal risk. That’s all the more reason to recognize the widespread demonstrations that broke out this weekend against the Chinese government’s draconian zero-Covid restrictions.
Private sector demand is weakening, signaling recession. As a side benefit though, supply chain problems are decreasing.
Nov 28, 2022 - 07:38:07 PST
The US has an inflation problem. Both headline and core inflation YoY remain high compared to the previous 40 years. And The Federal Reserve is resolute in trying to curb inflation to 2%.
Nov 28, 2022 - 07:32:48 PST
Due to high inflation, reduced consumer spending, higher rents and other economic pressures, U.S.-based small business owners’ rent problems just escalated to new heights nationally this month, based on Alignable’s November Rent Poll of 6,326 small business owners taken from 11/19/22 to 11/22/22.
Nov 28, 2022 - 07:30:57 PST
On this side of the pond, The Federal Reserve has begun their experiment with big banks using digital currency. This is a step towards going to a cashless economy.
Bank deposits at US commercial banks are starting to decline. This is an early warning sign of a weakening US economy – not of higher spending and rising inflation – and so does not necessitate tighter Fed policy than is currently priced.
Gold prices rose to more than one-week high on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this week that could give clues on the monetary policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,755.38 per ounce, as of 1258 GMT, after hitting its highest since Nov. 18 earlier in the session.
The crypto rout has room to run, according to veteran fund manager Mark Mobius.
Although growth of the U.S. money supply is slowing, employment trends are strong, lots of cash is left over from the pandemic stimulus, and using credit cards is easy. That has put many people in a buying mood, inflation or no inflation.
In response, major builders and developers are getting into the business, which was once dominated by mom-and-pop outfits.
Companies are shedding jobs to reduce costs amid high inflation and rising interest rates, but they run the risk of violating labor laws.
Goldman Sachs thinks that being defensive on stocks is the best bet headed into a 2023 that may see a long-talked about U.S. recession.