Gold has all the potential to go unprecedentedly high. But silver will be gold on
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This has been my long-standing analysis of the situation over the last couple of months: that the pipe bomb in the plumbing of the economy and the market that we created as a result of accelerated rate hikes has still yet to blow up.
Fed Tightening Reduces Horrendous Wealth Disparity that QE and Interest Rate Repression Have Wrought: Fed DataDec 21, 2022 - 08:12:26 PST
The vast wealth of the top 1% households declined, the minuscule “wealth” of the bottom 50% increased a tad.
In my analysis, this is a fatally flawed misreading of structural trends and cycles.
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a point yesterday. It was a drop from the .75 point rate increases that the Fed has been implementing for the past several months. A big reason the Fed is going slower is the longstanding fear among Fed officials of bringing about another Great Depression by raising interest rates too high...
‘Young Adults Are Particularly Vulnerable to Delinquencies’ — 1 in 5 Have Debt in CollectionsDec 21, 2022 - 07:45:42 PST
With little to no safety net, lower wages and shorter credit histories, young adults are struggling to manage high-interest debt, according to a new report.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months.
Fed's New Inflation Index Shows Rent Slowing Sharply, Setting Stage For Fed PivotDec 21, 2022 - 07:43:34 PST
There are two things that need to happen for the Fed to stop hiking and pivot (or just one if the Fed were to raise its inflation target, which will happen but not for several years as Powell himself admitted last week): first, the labor market has to turn decidedly weaker with both the pace of monthly payrolls increase and hourly earnings having to come down drastically; and second, inflation has to drop sharply on a Y/Y basis and has to at worst flatten sequentially.
Conference Board Confidence Surged In December, Inflation Expectations TumbledDec 21, 2022 - 07:27:24 PST
Analysts expected The Conference Board's Confidence survey to improve marginally in December with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print soared above expectations (108.3 vs 101.0 exp) to its highest in 8 months, led by a surge in both Expectations (from 76.7 to 82.4) and Present Situation (from 138.3 to 147.2). Expectations are at the highest since Jan 2022...
US Existing Home Sales "Frozen" In November, Biggest Annual Drop 'Since Lehman'Dec 21, 2022 - 07:11:02 PST
Following yesterday's dismal housing starts and building permits prints (which followed an ugly homebuilder sentiment signal), analysts expected US existing home sales to tumble 5.2% MoM in November. In fact, things were worse with a 7.7% MoM plunge (the biggest drop since Feb 22 and the 10th straight monthly decline). This is the biggest YoY drop since Lehman and the longest streak of sales declines since 1999...
Dec 21, 2022 - 07:04:44 PST
The mortgage market is behaving like today’s bomb cyclone in terms of the weather. Bomb cyclone in that mortgage rates have dropped 7.16% on October 21, 2022 to 6.34% on December 16, 2022 (a drop of 82 basis points), but mortgage purchase and refinancing applications are not increasing like one would hope.
Join Mike Maloney as he examines whether there is any way out for Jerome Powell - is a ‘soft landing’ achievable?
This means that sooner or later, our forecast is the second half of 2023, consumers will surrender and the economy will slip into a recession.
Dec 21, 2022 - 06:05:43 PST
In the bullish scenario for gold in 2023, central banks loosen monetary policy and the global economy contracts. Read more...
The US dollar is right at support. I do not expect much of a bounce here if indeed any.
There is minor support at 101 and much stronger support at 95. Given both monthly and weekly support at the 90 level, that is a good spot to bet on reasonable bounce in the dollar.
Dec 21, 2022 - 06:02:24 PST
The 117th Congress has been the most spendthrift in history, and this week it plans to go out with one final bipartisan back-slapping hurrah—a 4,155-page omnibus spending bill that is the worst in history. This is no way to govern in a democracy, but here we are.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields.
The Bank of Japan’s next move could be removing the negative interest rate after its surprise widening of the Japanese government bond yield band, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Recession, Rate Hikes Seen Jamming Brakes on Global 2023 Earnings GrowthDec 21, 2022 - 05:52:49 PST
Corporate earnings growth is expected to slow in the year ahead in many countries as higher inflation and rising interest rates take an even bigger toll and companies brace for the likelihood of a global economic downturn. U.S. companies are forecast to have the slowest full-year profit growth since 2020 and the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
US mortgage rates declined last week to a three-month low, though a slight easing in home-purchase applications underscores a still-challenged housing market.
Big Changes to the Retirement System Are Included in Congress’s End-Of-Year BillDec 21, 2022 - 05:47:56 PST
These include increasing the age for required minimum distributions from retirement plans to pushing businesses to get more employees enrolled in plans.