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Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike"Jan 3, 2023 - 09:03:05 PST
In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen's resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be "a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds."
Jan 3, 2023 - 09:01:21 PST
First, banks are stashing cash with the New York Fed on an “overnight basis” although it is looking pretty permanent to me. Repos (or repuchase agreements) soared to $2.55 TRILLION as of 12/30/22.
Jan 3, 2023 - 08:58:50 PST
If we look at the US Housing Leading Growth index (courtesy of RecessionAlert.com) has slumped to its worst reading since the recessions of 1982 and 2008.
A simple measure of IMPENDING recession is the US yield curve which is currently inverted. Typically, a recession occurs within months of the yield curve inverting. But if we look at real GDP growth, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is at 3.7%, so no recession there (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is often used as a measure of recession).
Jan 3, 2023 - 08:13:19 PST
There is growing expectations from markets that slowing economic growth and reduced inflation rates could lead to a more dovish approach from the Fed, with only a 25 basis point hike on January 31.
The price of gold notched a six-month high early on Tuesday, and analysts believe the rally has further to go in 2023.
The bottom line is gold will increasingly reflect this latest inflation super-spike in 2023. Gold investment demand will return with a vengeance as 2022’s illusions are dispelled.
This is Gold against the conventional investment portfolio, which is within 1% of a two-year high. When it breaks above 160, it will explode higher, indicating growing mainstream adoption of Gold.
If my take of late and over the decades is correct (as I believe to be the case), the consequences of an end to what has been a four-decade price manipulation in silver must be necessarily extreme.
Any way you slice it, 2022 was a turbulent year, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to historic inflation and jumbo rate hikes to multiple failures in the digital asset space. These have had wide-ranging implications for the world of finance that are sure to carry over into next year.
Gold prices made a positive start to the new year, with prices touching a more than six-month peak on Tuesday as investors positioned for the Federal Reserve's latest policy minutes. Spot gold, which had ended a volatile 2022 little changed, rose 0.5% to $1,832.59 per ounce by 1205 GMT after touching its highest since June 17 at $1,849.89. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $1,839.40.
There were all the usual gold and silver bullion coins from all lands, all worth the price of their metal content. All are vastly up in value from when he bought them. There were also hundreds of silver dimes. And there were plenty of numismatics too and because I don’t know my way around this world, I’ll let the experts determine their value.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on CBS's 'Face the Nation' in an interview aired on Jan. 1 that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year and investors must prepare for "a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind."
You Don't Have To Be A Conspiracy Theorist To Be Worried About The World Economic ForumJan 3, 2023 - 06:01:04 PST
Samuel Greg, a Distinguished Fellow in Political Economy at the American Institute for Economic Research and author, most recently, of The Next American Economy: Nation, State, and Markets in an Uncertain World, has written a good piece for the Spectator about the WEF on the eve of Davos 2023.
Inflation has been top of mind over the last year, looming over every aspect of the economy. But how has inflation actually impacted the prices of everyday goods like bread and butter or gas and public transportation?
Bloomberg reports that the decline to single digits in the main rate masks an increase in food costs across Germany at the end of 2022, aggravating a squeeze on the poorest families and stoking the risk of a wage-price spiral.
Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.
Europe’s energy-squeezed winter has sent power operators and businesses into high alert for blackout risks, heightened by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
If you thought that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Nasdaq’s subsequent 33 per cent puke in 2022 were enough to finally kill the tragicomically engorged late-stage private market tech bubble .
Italy is the eurozone country most susceptible to a debt crisis as the European Central Bank raises interest rates and buys fewer bonds in the coming months, economists say. Nine out of 10 economists in a Financial Times poll identified Italy as the eurozone country “most at risk of an uncorrelated sell-off in its government bond markets”. Italy’s rightwing coalition government...