Gold has all the potential to go unprecedentedly high. But silver will be gold on
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Central banks need gold because they may be preparing for an unprecedented period of monetary devastation,
For many investors who started investing following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade.
FOMC Minutes Show Hawkish Fed Pushing Back Against "Unwarranted" Easing In Financial ConditionsJan 4, 2023 - 11:17:41 PST
Since the last FOMC statement on Dec 14th - when The Fed hiked by 50bps and gushed hawkishly - gold has outperformed while long-duration stocks have been the biggest loser with the dollar flat and crypto and bonds lower...
Inflation may fall faster than most expect this year, but then surprise by beginning to rise again, potentially making new highs later in the cycle. Financial assets would have a reprieve due to a temporary easing in monetary policy, but face more downside as inflation began rising again.
Jan 4, 2023 - 09:06:33 PST
President Biden will speak about his economic plan and its impact on U.S. infrastructure and American communities in Kentucky on Wednesday.
Job Openings Come In Much Hotter Than Expected Despite Continued Deterioration In HiringJan 4, 2023 - 09:05:56 PST
One month after the October JOLTS report signaled a long-overdue plunge in job openings, when the BLS reported a 353,000 drop and reversing much of the previous month's gain, things have again reverted back to normal because moments ago the latest JOLTS reported indicated that after the strongly upward revised October print of 10.512MM - up from 10.334MM previously - the latest, November, openings print was 10.458MM, which while a drop of 54K from the previous month, was more than 400K higher than consensus expectations.
If the consensus of experts misunderstand money, credit and prosperity, how are we going to advance?
Well, I am looking and what I see is a rare convergence of a severe recession and a liquidity crisis at the same time as happened in 2008. It’s coming.
Fed, FDIC, & OCC Warn Banks about Contagion from Cryptos, with Laundry List of Sordid Stuff Inherent in the Crypto SceneJan 4, 2023 - 07:20:08 PST
Only a couple of smaller banks have significant exposure to cryptos, and their shares have collapsed.
To this our question is why would Kashkari be "offering a framework for thinking" about anything when he has been dead wrong about everything, although in retrospect we can't deny the utility of Kashkari's latest public comment: moments after the essay hit, terminal rates dipped as traders rushed to frontrun yet another instance of "chump" Kashkari being wrong.
ISM Manufacturing Contracts For 2nd Month, Prices Paid & New Orders PlungeJan 4, 2023 - 07:14:51 PST
Following the final PMI print for December yesterday confirming the manufacturing side of the US economy is at its weakest since the COVID-lockdown crisis, ISM reports this morning that weakness with a worse than expected 48.4 print (down from 49.0). That is the ninth straight decline in ISM Manufacturing, the longest stretch of declines since 1974-1975.
Jan 4, 2023 - 07:12:36 PST
Mortgage applications generally nosedive in the last two weeks of the year (seasonality effect), but Federal Reserce monetary tightening to fight inflation is making the last two weeks worse than usual.
Gold prices climbed to their highest levels in more than six months on Wednesday as the yellow metal appeared on track to surpass the highest end-of-day...
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.
Asian Stocks in 2022 Suffer Biggest Foreign Outflows Since 2008 Global CrisisJan 4, 2023 - 05:52:39 PST
Foreign investors withdrew more money from emerging Asian equities in 2022 than they had done in any year since the global financial crisis in 2008, as rising U.S. interest rates pulled funds towards dollar assets.
The graph below compares the three most probable paths for Fed Funds in 2023. The green line tracks the Federal Reserve’s guidance for the Fed Funds rate. The black line charts investor projections as implied by Fed Funds futures. Lastly, the “something breaks” alternative in red is based on prior easing cycles.
Having weathered a dire 2022, many global hedge fund managers are preparing this year for persistent inflation and seeking exposure to commodities and bonds that perform well in such an environment. A majority of the 10 global asset and hedge fund managers surveyed by Reuters said commodities are undervalued and should thrive as global inflation stays elevated in 2023.
A brutal 2022 for bonds delivered the worst year ever for Pacific Investment Management Co.’s exchange-traded fund business.
U.S. Consumers Have Spent More Than $1 Trillion in Stimulus Saved up During the PandemicJan 4, 2023 - 05:37:44 PST
Stimulus programs rolled out during the pandemic saw a surge in the household savings rate, which typically floated in a range between 7% and 9% of income in the years before the pandemic.
Bets for a Bank of Japan policy pivot are gathering pace in the bond market, with global funds offloading a record amount of the nation’s debt in the final days of 2022.