Precious metals news

Alan Hibbard dives into top banks’ new predictions for gold in 2025-ranging from $2,900 to $3,000-and examine how they fared with earlier forecasts.

After an exceptional two-year bull run reminiscent of the late 1990s, the market narrative has evolved significantly. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, totaling one percentage point over four months, have become secondary to the broader implications of Donald Trump's presidency and potential policy changes. The market environment shows several key shifts: corporate confidence has become consensus rather than surprising, investors are adapting to sustainably higher interest rates, and the 10-year Treasury yield is testing multi-decade highs. Most notably, Trump has replaced Fed Chair Jay Powell as the primary source of market uncertainty, with investors increasingly focused on how his policies might reshape the Fed's role, market dynamics, and the broader U.S. economy.

Gold's current price action presents a familiar pattern that typically emerges during major market repricing events, but with a unique geopolitical twist. The chart suggests that gold's upward trajectory is primarily driven by US-China relations, making it more than just another market trend. Unlike normal market movements that tend to equilibrate around risk-free rates, this pattern indicates deeper structural changes in the global economic landscape. As tensions between major powers persist, gold's rise could accelerate as global speculators join the trend. However, the metal's role has evolved beyond being just an investment vehicle - it's becoming a crucial leading indicator for global stability and economic health. For investors, understanding this dual nature of gold as both a trade and a geopolitical barometer is essential for making informed decisions across their entire portfolio, as escalating global tensions could significantly impact various sectors and businesses differently.

Oil markets are experiencing significant volatility as multiple geopolitical factors come into play. Brent crude approached $78 per barrel, recovering from its steepest drop since November, as protesters threatened to halt operations at Libya's crucial Ras Lanuf and Es Sider export terminals. This potential disruption to Libya's oil exports coincides with President Trump's aggressive trade stance, including plans for universal tariffs "much bigger" than 2.5% and specific threats targeting Canadian oil imports, which comprise over half of U.S. crude imports. The situation is further complicated by existing pressures from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and weather-related demand spikes. Despite Trump's calls for increased production to lower prices, OPEC and its allies are expected to maintain their current supply policy at next week's review meeting, with planned output increases not starting until April. These factors collectively create a complex landscape for oil markets, which have already seen signific...

The market fallout from DeepSeek's disruptive AI announcement is raising concerns among top Wall Street strategists about potential broader economic impacts. Citi's analysis team, led by Adam Pickett, points to increasingly "frothy" U.S. equity markets and warns that the current tech selloff could significantly impact consumer wealth, noting that a record 58% of American households now hold stocks. The connection between market performance and consumer spending is particularly concerning, with their research showing that a 1% S&P 500 movement correlates to a 0.3% change in household financial assets. This situation is further complicated by Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio's observation that AI excitement has created bubble-like conditions similar to the late 1990s, with high valuations coinciding with interest rate risks. Adding to the market uncertainty, President Trump's aggressive tariff rhetoric is strengthening the dollar, potentially creating additional headwinds for the economy.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies on Tuesday as markets grappled with Trump's expanded tariff threats and the aftermath of DeepSeek's AI breakthrough. The dollar index recovered to 108 as traders reversed Monday's risk-off moves, while the euro fell 0.7% to $1.04155. As the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting, market expectations have shifted, with rate cuts now anticipated around June, though Fed officials have already acknowledged potential impacts from Trump's policies on their inflation outlook. The European Central Bank's expected rate cut this week adds another layer of complexity to the currency landscape.

Gold's trajectory for 2025 looks exceptionally strong, building on its impressive 27% gain in 2024 - its best performance since 2010. A recent poll of 36 market experts projects gold reaching $2,756 per ounce in 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the metal's safe-haven appeal during Trump's second term. While gold briefly retreated following the U.S. election and the Fed's December meeting, which indicated fewer rate cuts for 2025, the metal has found renewed support from Trump's tariff threats and potential trade conflicts. However, analysts note a market divergence: while high prices might dampen jewelry demand in price-sensitive Asian markets, central bank purchases and speculative interest are expected to remain robust, particularly as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures persist.

The U.S. dollar saw significant gains on Tuesday following President Trump's statements aboard Air Force One regarding his plans for universal tariffs. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had proposed a gradual approach starting at 2.5% with incremental increases, Trump suggested he had a "much higher" rate in mind. Though declining to specify the exact figure, Trump emphasized the tariffs would be sufficient to "protect our country." This policy divergence triggered immediate market response, with the dollar index climbing more than half a point to 107.86, showing uniform strength against both the euro and Japanese yen. The market movement suggests investors are pricing in the potential impact of more aggressive trade policies than initially anticipated under the Bessent plan.

The Perrodo family, with an $8 billion fortune built on their oil company Perenco, is dramatically diversifying their investments through their London-based family office BNF Capital and private equity firm Perwyn Advisors. Their recent ventures span luxury real estate, high-end diamonds, fashion brands, and specialty food products, marking a significant shift from their traditional oil and gas focus while maintaining their core energy business.

A significant breakthrough appears possible in the ongoing dispute between Barrick Gold Corporation and Mali's government as both parties return to the negotiating table, facilitated by the National Workers Union of Mali. The conflict over revenue distribution from the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, one of the world's largest gold operations, has resulted in severe consequences including the seizure of gold stockpiles by Mali's government and an arrest warrant issued for Barrick's CEO Mark Bristow. While Mali's military junta hasn't explicitly stated their demands, Barrick has put forward a substantial $370 million settlement offer to resolve the standoff. This development marks a potential turning point in a dispute that has significantly impacted operations at a crucial mining facility and strained relations between the world's second-largest gold producer and the West African nation.

Gold markets found their footing on Tuesday after experiencing their steepest drop since December 18, when investors liquidated positions to cover losses in technology stocks. The selloff was precipitated by DeepSeek's announcement of a low-cost AI model, which challenged the dominance of established AI companies. Despite this turbulence, gold has maintained its position above $2,742 per ounce, supported by stable European equities and broader market recovery. Analysts remain bullish on gold's prospects for 2025, citing multiple supporting factors including potential Fed rate cuts, Trump's inflationary policies, and ongoing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, as the Federal Reserve begins its first meeting of the year, attention turns to monetary policy decisions, though Trump's recent comments about wanting lower borrowing costs have raised questions about the Fed's independence. While gold and silver maintain strong positions, analysts have reduced their forecasts for platinum and palladium due to persistent...

With Trump calling for the U.S. to be the Crypto Capital of the world and Senate Lummis promoting a Bitcoin Strategy Reserve, could China's DeepSeek put a real KIBOSH in the plans...

U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday, with the 10-year note dropping 12 basis points to 4.50% as investors sought safety amid a tech sector selloff triggered by Chinese AI firm DeepSeek's breakthrough. The flight to safety also boosted traditional haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, while traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The market reaction echoes concerns about U.S. tech valuations and technological dominance.

Oil prices are fluctuating near $78 per barrel as markets react to President Trump's rapid succession of trade policy moves, particularly the threatened and subsequently paused tariffs against Colombia. Despite the uncertainty, crude prices remain elevated from the start of the year, supported by cold weather, Russian sanctions, and strong Asian demand. Supply disruptions in Iraq's Rumaila field and record production in Kazakhstan are adding to market volatility.

Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos warns that DeepSeek's AI breakthrough could trigger a market correction reminiscent of the dot-com bust. While the innovation may boost long-term productivity and growth, the near-term impact could include a tech sector selloff, mild recession, and eventual dollar weakness. While Saravelos acknowledges the long-term benefits of lower-cost productivity gains and reduced inflation, he emphasizes that near-term market adjustments could be significant, particularly when combined with potential Trump administration fiscal measures and trade policies with China.

Pimco's Marc Seidner is taking a contrarian position on Federal Reserve policy, predicting two rate cuts in the second half of 2025 with potential for more, despite market expectations of fewer reductions. The veteran investment officer, whose Dynamic Bond Fund has outperformed 91% of peers, believes markets are overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump's policies and favors shorter-term Treasuries to capitalize on expected rate moves.

DeepSeek's breakthrough in cost-efficient AI model training has sent shockwaves through financial markets, particularly affecting semiconductor and tech stocks. The Chinese company's ability to train a competitive AI model for just $6 million, compared to the much higher costs of industry leaders like OpenAI ($78 million) and Google ($191 million), has raised fundamental questions about the sector's economics. While some analysts remain skeptical of DeepSeek's claims, their significantly lower end-user pricing - charging just 14 cents per million input tokens versus OpenAI's $15 - has caught market attention. The implications extend beyond chip manufacturers to recent infrastructure investments, including Trump's announced $500 billion AI deal with SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI. Furthermore, the development could dramatically impact utility companies and power infrastructure planning, as Morgan Stanley's projection of AI consuming 10% of U.S. electricity by decade's end may need revision if DeepSeek's effi...

A new face of food insecurity is emerging across America as working families increasingly rely on food banks to make ends meet, despite having steady jobs and income. The surge in demand reflects the lasting impact of a 23% price increase over the past five years, with grocery costs alone jumping nearly 28%. Food banks nationwide report record-breaking numbers, with facilities like the Flagstaff Family Food Center seeing demand surge from 28,000 to over 40,000 meals per month. The crisis traces back to the massive $5 trillion government stimulus during the pandemic, which helped achieve a rapid economic recovery but contributed to significant inflation. Now, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, as their policies directly affect millions of Americans already struggling with elevated living costs. The situation is particularly notable for affecting not just low-income households but also reaching into middle-income brackets, with so...

The Federal Reserve finds itself at a critical juncture as it prepares for its first post-inauguration meeting, with Chairman Powell working to preserve the central bank's independence amid mounting political pressure. Following last year's full percentage point rate cut to 4.25%-4.5%, the Fed plans to maintain current rates despite President Trump's repeated calls for immediate reductions. Market analysts, including UBS and LHMeyer, suggest the Fed will likely resist political pressure, maintaining its focus on economic data and inflation targets rather than White House demands. While tensions between the Fed and the White House may increase, experts emphasize that institutional support from Congress and financial markets should help shield the central bank's independence. The Fed's projected timeline for two rate cuts in 2025, with the first expected in June, contrasts with the administration's desire for earlier action to support its pro-growth agenda and manage federal budget costs. However, market pa...

Gold continues to demonstrate strength in the market, trading near its record high of $2,790.17, bolstered by multiple supportive factors. A softening U.S. dollar, down 0.28%, combined with falling Treasury yields, has enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal's resilience is particularly noteworthy given the current market environment, where tech stock volatility has triggered a broader flight to safety. Market sentiment remains bullish with traders targeting the $3,000 level, though careful attention is being paid to key support at $2,693.40. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to maintain current rates, potentially creating a favorable low-yield environment for gold. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and persistent inflation concerns continue to reinforce gold's traditional role as a hedge against market instability.