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U.S. inflation, which has resulted from the Federal Reserve’s excess creation of money in 2020-21, is still with us. Now, we are just starting to see another negative consequence of the Fed’s hasty response to the Covid crisis. The Federal Reserve System is currently racking up substantial losses.
The Wall Street Journal reports Fed’s Interest-Rate Strategy in 2023 Hinges on How Quickly Rate Increases Slow Economy. Federal Reserve officials’ deliberations this week over how much more to raise interest rates will hinge on how much they expect the economy to slow this year.
Conference Board Confidence Slides In January, Inflation Expectations ReboundedJan 31, 2023 - 07:12:31 PST
Analysts expected The Conference Board's Confidence survey to improve marginally in January with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print disappointed expectations (107.1 vs 109.0 exp), hurt by a slip in Expectations (from 83.4 to 77.8) as Present Situation rose (from 147.4 to 150.0). The Present Situation is at the highest since April 2022...
After a surprisingly strong rebound in December, Chicago PMI fell back in January to 44.3 (below expectations of 45.0), below '50' for the 5th straight month... That is the longest streak of prints in 'contraction' since the Great Financial Crisis.
San Francisco Home Prices Decline YoY As US Home Price Gains Slowed For The 5th Straight MonthJan 31, 2023 - 07:05:33 PST
Case-Shiller's latest data (for November) showed US home price acceleration continued to slow (-0.54% MoM - slightly stronger than expected) for the 5th straight month.
With The Fed huddling in The Eccles Building and traders hyper-focused on any signs of 'peak inflation' (because that means 'peak Fed tightness'), this morning's Q4 US employment costs index rose 1.0% QoQ (slightly cooler than the +1.1% expected and down from the +1.2% QoQ in Q3)...
The price of gold is soaring as demand for the precious metal from both central banks and small investors rockets. Today the price of gold was at £1.548 an ounce, a rise of more than 16% on the year, as investors sought to protect themselves from runaway inflation. The World Gold Council today says that annual gold demand increased 18% in 2022 at 4,741 tonnes.
Gold as Inflationary Hedge Makes Turkey World’s Biggest Buyer: BloombergJan 31, 2023 - 06:06:12 PST
Turkey was the biggest buyer of gold among central banks last year, with households also rushing to buy the commodity to shield from geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.
Three more months of price data to be in hand by May meeting Officials expected to slow hikes to 25 basis points this week.
A Democratic president. A new Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives pushing for sharp spending cuts. A rapidly growing pile of debt - and a showdown that threatens to throw the global economy into turmoil.
China’s reopening is set to provide a welcome boost to global growth, offsetting weakness in Europe and a looming recession in the US. But unlike in 2009, when China’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus helped kickstart a recovery from the Lehman slump, in 2023 there’s a catch — a boost to inflation at exactly the moment the Federal Reserve and other central banks race to bring it back...
The Treasury Department said Monday it plans to increase its borrowing during the first three months of 2023, even as the federal government is bumping up against a $31.4 trillion limit on its legal borrowing authority.
The central bank could deliver news this week that investors don't want to hear: More rate increases than expected are ahead.
Layoffs Needed in America to Break Out of Inflation’s Vicious Circle, Former Walmart U.S. CEOJan 31, 2023 - 05:47:45 PST
More job losses across the economy are necessary to break the ongoing wage-price spiral, a danger the brick-and-mortar employer itself is risking with its recent pay hike.
IMF Hikes Global Growth Forecast as Inflation Cools and Household Spending SurprisesJan 31, 2023 - 05:45:38 PST
In its latest economic update, the IMF said the global economy will grow 2.9% this year — which represents a 0.2 percentage point improvement from its previous forecast in October. However, that number would still mean a fall from an expansion of 3.4% in 2022.
U.S. Employment Costs Jump Again and Offer Little Comfort to Fed in Inflation Fight: MWJan 31, 2023 - 05:41:03 PST
The employment cost index rose a sharp 1% in the fourth quarter, giving little comfort to a Federal Reserve that worries a rapid rise in wages could make it harder to tame inflation.
Gas Prices Have Jumped for Five Straight Weeks and Are ‘Unlikely’ to Drop Soon, Experts SayJan 31, 2023 - 05:38:44 PST
Gas prices have been rising to start 2023, after dropping at the end of last year. Here's what to know about the rising cost at the pump.
The grocery chain told suppliers at a virtual summit that it wants to bring down retail prices in its store aisles as inflation moderates.
With inflation and the cost of living on the rise, older workers are increasingly looking to the gig economy to keep afloat, according to data released by the AARP.
Johns Hopkins University professor of applied economics Steve Hanke shares his outlook on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates and the current state of the money supply.