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US Job Opening Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor, UBS FindsJan 31, 2023 - 12:52:34 PST
When it comes to labor market data (or rather "data"), Biden's labor department is a study in contrasts (and pats on shoulders). One day we get a contraction in PMI employment (both manufacturing and services), the other we get a major beat in employment.
Mike Maloney recently wrote an open letter to all Keynesian economists, posing several ‘one-hundred-trillion-dollar questions’. Find out what the questions are, and why they can not be answered honestly or logically without a severe change in thinking from the world’s ‘elite’ economists.
Six weeks ago, an analytical model developed by a analyst at the U.S. Federal Reserve said the odds the NBER will say a recession began sometime betweeen mid-December 2022 and mid-December 2023 was just one in six. As of 30 January 2023, that same model is signaling the probability the NBER will someday say the U.S. went into recession during 2023 is nearing 50%.
With America’s debt now hovering near 125 percent of GDP, and deficits topping $1 trillion yearly as far as the eye can see, we can no longer ignore this drag on the US economy.
Lebanon will adopt a new official exchange rate of 15,000 pounds per U.S. dollar on Feb. 1, central bank governor Riad Salameh said, marking a 90% devaluation from its current official rate that has remained unchanged for 25 years.
Central Banks Have Caused Poor Monetary and Economic Performance.
Jan 31, 2023 - 11:32:00 PST
On one side, McCarthy and other Republicans have said that a deal needs to include spending caps at previous-year levels or a balanced budget, without specifying the deep cuts such a move would entail. On the other side, Biden and his aides have tried to avoid negotiations altogether, saying the debt limit should simply be raised without any pre-conditions.
Major U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday as labor cost data encouraged investors about the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to taming inflation a day ahead of the central bank's critical policy decision.
We have used the market cap of companies as of Jan. 31 to rank the 10 biggest companies reporting earnings in the second week of Feb 2023.
Stocks are now in a strange time in which they do not perceive any major threats. As a result of this, the bulls are buying stocks based on the usual “the Fed is about to pivot” nonsense. And they’re in for a world of pain.
The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing, while inflation remains elevated.
After an epic 15-year run, hedge fund Universa’s Mark Spitznagel says the financial system is poised for a crisis—eventually.
BEIJING (AP) — China’s government accused Washington on Tuesday of pursuing “technology hegemony” following news reports the United States might step up pressure on tech giant Huawei by blocking all access to American suppliers.
Jan 31, 2023 - 08:22:18 PST
Risk of conflict between Chinese, US militaries has increased as both sides boost deterrence capabilities, experts say Top US commanders have predicted military conflict with China may happen in the near future A warning by a US air force commander that a military conflict with mainland China could come as early as 2025 implies the American military is gearing up combat...
The expansion is part of a broader push in the Indo-Pacific to buttress U.S. force posture, reinforce alliances and deter China.
Jan 31, 2023 - 08:19:14 PST
CHINA is preparing for an all-out blitz of Taiwan, a former US Department of Defence official has warned. Michael Beckley said Xi Jinping will have learned from Putin's disastrous mistakes in Ukraine and will aim to "hit Taiwan hard from the start" and "sever them from the outside world".
U.S. inflation, which has resulted from the Federal Reserve’s excess creation of money in 2020-21, is still with us. Now, we are just starting to see another negative consequence of the Fed’s hasty response to the Covid crisis. The Federal Reserve System is currently racking up substantial losses.
The Wall Street Journal reports Fed’s Interest-Rate Strategy in 2023 Hinges on How Quickly Rate Increases Slow Economy. Federal Reserve officials’ deliberations this week over how much more to raise interest rates will hinge on how much they expect the economy to slow this year.
Conference Board Confidence Slides In January, Inflation Expectations ReboundedJan 31, 2023 - 07:12:31 PST
Analysts expected The Conference Board's Confidence survey to improve marginally in January with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print disappointed expectations (107.1 vs 109.0 exp), hurt by a slip in Expectations (from 83.4 to 77.8) as Present Situation rose (from 147.4 to 150.0). The Present Situation is at the highest since April 2022...
After a surprisingly strong rebound in December, Chicago PMI fell back in January to 44.3 (below expectations of 45.0), below '50' for the 5th straight month... That is the longest streak of prints in 'contraction' since the Great Financial Crisis.