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While central banks have slowed the pace of tightening, more interest-rate increases loom as inflation hovers above targets across the world, according to the head of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Recession Risk Looms Large as Bond Markets Price in Steeper Rate Hikes GloballyMar 9, 2023 - 05:31:14 PST
Forget about interest-rate cuts. The bond market is now pricing in a steeper path for monetary tightening by central banks around the world, raising the danger of recessions as policymakers struggle to bring inflation under control.
While the magnitude, or depth, of a yield curve inversion isn't necessarily predictive of a deeper, or longer recession, there are a host of other indicators in the bond market that are sounding alarm bells.
Global markets were in a rare lull on Thursday ahead of U.S. jobs data at the end of the week that could easily whip up more cross-asset storms.
The January Trade Deficit saw a slight increase compared to December, coming in at -$68.3B vs -$67.2B in the prior month. After peaking at -$106B in March of last year, the Trade Deficit has returned to a more stable range between -$60B and -$80B.
AMERICA'S LARGEST RENEWABLE ENERGY UTILITY FINANCIAL TRAINWRECK: NextEra Renewable Energy Heading For Financial DisasterMarch 9, 2023
If the Financial Trainwreck that is taking place at America's largest Renewable Energy Utility Company is a Red Warning Light, this is terrible news for the United States and the world. NextEra Energy's Renewable Energy Sector's financials are a disaster in the making...
Gold steadied on Wednesday after shedding nearly 2% in the previous session on an elevated dollar, with demand for the non-yielding asset blunted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalling more rate hikes.
"Providing revenue to the state is one of the reasons (and, perhaps the primary reason) governments worldwide monopolize the issuance of high-powered money." ~ Bryan Cutsinger
"The recent uptick in inflation is worrying, and the Fed needs to get a handle on the situation before higher inflation expectations become entrenched. But the Fed doesn’t need to take a sledgehammer to labor markets to ease the economy’s pricing pressures." ~ Alexander William Salter
The U.S. is heading towards a debt crisis. It’s been heading towards one for years… but the massive rise in Treasury yields may finally be the match that lights the fuse. I’ve written extensively about the …
Prepare yourself for some absolutely mind-blowing revelations from Mike Maloney as he discusses Chapter 7 of his new book "The Great Gold & Silver Rush of the 21st Century' with his friend David Morgan of 'The Morgan Report'. Strap in for this one.
Biden To Propose 5.2% Raise For Federal Employees; Republicans, Unions SlamMar 8, 2023 - 11:52:36 PST
One day after President Biden proposed raising taxes on high-earning Americans to keep Medicare afloat, the Washington Post reports that Biden is now expected to float a 5.2 percent pay raise for federal employees, the largest salary boost since Jimmy Carter was president.
The plan would increase the net investment income tax to 5%, from 3.8%, for earnings of more than $400,000, including regular income, capital gains and so-called pass-through business income.
Mar 8, 2023 - 11:44:56 PST
"The divergence btw real resi investment $ and units under construct is likely a signal of the turning point being close and then sharp."
On Friday, residential real estate brokerage firm Redfin released new data on home prices, showing that prices fell 0.6 percent in February, year over year. According to Redfin's numbers, this was the first time that home prices actually fell since 2012.
When The Yield Curve Inverts Over 100bps "A Recession Is Already Underway Or Begins Within 8 Months"Mar 8, 2023 - 11:42:02 PST
Yesterday, the spread between 2- and 10-year yields rose above 1% (and in the past 24 hours yield curve has blown out another 10bps to 110bps) for the first time since 1981, when Paul Volcker was engineering hikes that broke the back of double-digit inflation at the cost of a lengthy recession and millions of unemployed workers.
The unencumbered realist concludes that there are no solutions within a status quo structure that is itself the problem.
Step 1 of QT is operating at full speed. Step 2 of QT is just starting.
Mar 8, 2023 - 07:59:13 PST
Agree or not with either stance, Senator Warren just turned Fed policy into a huge political issue.
Powell was a bit flustered by Warren's questioning, stuttering a bit to find answers. He also totally blew one response. Did you catch it?
In his testimony to Congress today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "And while housing services inflation remains too high, the flattening out in rents evident in recently signed leases points to a deceleration in this component of inflation over the year ahead."