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Credit portfolio managers are forecasting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming year while more than four-out-of-five participants see a chance of a US recession in 2023, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers.
The World Bank arm that provides help to the poorest countries plans more concessional loans and grants to nations facing higher risks of debt distress, a move that could unlock impasses hindering the restructure of billions of dollars of debt held by low-income nations.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said she’s seen no indication of a contraction in credit following the failure of a string of US banks last month.
Warren Buffett Tears Into Banks, Warns Inflation & Recession Can Lead to Big ProblemsApr 13, 2023 - 05:30:52 PDT
Warren Buffett accused banks of misleading accounting, compared crypto buyers to gamblers, and flagged inflation and recession as major dangers.
Oil traded near a five-month high as falling US inventories and surging Chinese imports added to signs of a tightening global market.
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders added to wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of this year after a report signaled easing inflation pressures.
New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a dovish tone once again by highlighting the risk of inflation slowing below the central bank’s target.
Global equities rose on Thursday while the dollar held near two-month lows after US inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve may soon halt interest rate increases, which in turn kept gold above $2,000 an ounce.
The Federal Government ran a gargantuan deficit of -$378B in March. This is over $100B larger than the massive February deficit. In the last three years, only the deficit last September was larger because the government recognized the cost of Biden’s student loan forgiveness. September aside, this month was the largest deficit month since March 2021 when Biden signed the last Covid deficit bailout package.
The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.
Gold stocks are pushing higher. Last checked, the metal was up another $11 to $2,003.57, and could see higher highs. Helping, “The biggest banking crisis since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 prompted investors to flee into gold last month, ending ten consecutive months of outflows, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council,”
Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday.
Fed Officials Fretted Bank Turmoil Could Have Serious Economic ConsequencesApr 12, 2023 - 13:00:51 PDT
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 21-22 meeting showed that officials were grappling with how much more to lift borrowing costs.
Several Federal Reserve policymakers last month considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of two regional banks and a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession.
US Credit and Debit Card Spending Slows to Weakest Pace in Two Years, BofA Says: BloombergApr 12, 2023 - 12:58:26 PDT
Weakness was broad-based across goods, services in March Slower wage growth, lower tax returns weighed on card spending...
Kirby Addresses Pentagon Leak Showing US Special Forces On Ground In UkraineApr 12, 2023 - 12:52:00 PDT
Do the fresh Pentagon leaks show that the US is hiding something when it comes to 'boots on the ground'? It appears so.
Apr 12, 2023 - 12:48:44 PDT
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly issued her first comments since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
Gold jumped on Wednesday as signs of cooling inflation bolstered bets that a pause in U.S. rate increases was imminent, although traders positioned for one more hike in May with minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting also in focus.
FOMC Minutes Show Staff Expect 'Mild Recession', All Members Backed Continued QT, 25bps HikeApr 12, 2023 - 11:14:22 PDT
So the big question from the Minutes is whether there is real sentiment for that hawkish median dot-plot (sticky inflation) or are Fed members leaning more to pause and hold (systemic threats and slowing inflation)?
Most analysts have been expecting the price of shelter to come down. I have not been in that camp and still are not, although we are getting closer to smaller increases.