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Conviction to an economic or political thesis can lead to a loss of capital through missed opportunities or bad investments.
In what is a traditionally moribund corner of Wall Street, speculators are piling into a bet that once seemed unthinkable: that the U.S. government will default on its debts.
Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher.
    Signs Are Mounting That a Debt Crunch is Looming
May 1, 2023 - 05:49:28 PDT
The trouble is rekindling concern that a credit crunch is underway. And it further complicates the plan for next week’s Fed policy meeting, where officials have to figure out how to balance the risks of tighter borrowing conditions against stubbornly high inflation.
The world's financial system needs a “massive adjustment” to cope with higher interest rates, and key rules will have to be revisited, according to a top global regulator.
Biden administration officials won’t disclose contingency plans, but the historical record offers clues on preventing financial and economic chaos.
    U.S. Recession Probability Reaches 67%
May 1, 2023 - 05:42:49 PDT
What month will the National Bureau of Economic Research someday get around to saying marked the beginning of the next recession in the U.S.?
    Munger Warns Banks Stuck with Commercial Property Debt
May 1, 2023 - 05:42:05 PDT
Banks are saddled with bad loans, signaling trouble ahead in the US commercial property market, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Charlie Munger told the Financial Times in an interview.
Though Schwab is not a regional bank, rumors and fears are leading to real world issues for the bank. According to Bloomberg, Schwab is “facing dwindling deposits”. As if that wasn’t enough, Schwab’s costs are rising rapidly and have been doing so for years. In fact, between 2016-2022 expenses rose at a compound annual growth rate of more than 15%.
    The Air Has Come Out of the Dollar: WSJ
May 1, 2023 - 05:29:50 PDT
The U.S. economy no longer looks so exceptional. That is bad news for the dollar. An almost decadelong runup has left the greenback heavily overvalued, some analysts say.
Stock market investors holding on to hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half could be disappointed later this week, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — a staunch Wall Street bear.
Investors are piling into bets against the US dollar as this week’s expected Federal Reserve interest-rate hike is likely to bring the steepest tightening cycle in a generation to a halt.
    Fed Seen Boosting Rates Even as Economic Risks Build
May 1, 2023 - 05:26:53 PDT
Federal Reserve policymakers are about to extend their year-long campaign of raising interest rates to beat back still-stubborn inflation, even as risks to the US economy build.
Heading into the weekend, US regulators were facing a dilemma over the fate of First Republic Bank: either let the insolvent California bank fail and bail-in some (or all) of the $30 billion in uninsured rescue deposits given to the bank by a consortium of banks including JPMorgan, BofA, Goldman and others so as not to appear like the Biden admin is bailing-out big, bad banks again a la 2008, but in the process restarting the bank run panic as an impairment of all bank depositors would reverse Janet Yellen's vow not to do just that in the aftermath of the SVB collapse, or bail out FRC including all of its depositors...
U.S. stock index futures were muted on Monday as investor focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy decision expected this week, while regulators said First Republic Bank has been seized and a deal agreed to sell the bank to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
President Biden has announced he will run for a second term in 2024. Peter Schiff recently appeared on the Ingraham Angle on Fox News to talk about what will happen if we keep going down the Biden road. In a nutshell, Peter said we can't afford to let Biden "finish the job."
You have to see how much the Global Money Supply has increased in the past decade... I was completely stunned.  There is so much money sloshing around that when the world hits "Hyper-Stagflation," it will push the silver price to new all-time highs...
The CoTs report is a breakdown of open interest in the major futures markets as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Please note: the CoTs report was published 04/28/2023 for the period ending 04/25/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The old-school precious metal has new allure for a generation seeking a respite from the cryptocurrency roller coaster.
    200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country
Apr 28, 2023 - 13:11:22 PDT
Global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s, with 86% of all above-ground gold mined in the last 200 years.