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A hike on May 2 is a given. The market perceives a 30.1 percent chance of a one more hike in June.
The light green bars show the panic around the bank failures in May. The market has since put more rate hikes back on the table as noted by the bars for April 11 and May 2.
May 2, 2023 - 07:34:22 PDT
The Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to one more hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting. Then reversal of poli…
Headline factory orders for March disappointed e3xpectations, rising 0.9% MoM versus +1.3% MoM expected (and Feb's 0.7% decline was revised down to 1.1% MoM decline). That pushed the YoY growth in factory orders to just +1.4% YoY - the weakest since Feb 2021...
Mentions Of "Job Cuts" Overtake "Labor Shortage": Cost Control And Job Cuts Are In, Growth Is Out May 2, 2023 - 07:10:53 PDT
Wall Street’s worries about Corporate America’s dwindling profit margins appear to have made their way to the C-suite based on earnings reports so far this quarter.
Gold prices traded slightly higher early Tuesday but remained within their recent tight trading range around $2,000 an ounce as the yellow metal entered what one analyst called “a period of consolidation” ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Global Bank Lending Standards Tighten to The Great Financial Crash LevelsMay 2, 2023 - 06:14:55 PDT
A composite measure of DM banks’ lending standards shows they are the tightest since 2009. Tighter credit conditions will be an impediment to central banks’ preference to keep rates “higher for longer.”
May 2, 2023 - 06:11:24 PDT
SVB’s implosion highlights the destabilising impact of quantitative easing. At the end of 2022, the US banking system had $18tn in domestic deposits, including an estimated $10tn of deposits insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That meant there were $8tn of deposits that exceeded the FDIC insurance limit.
Last week the House passed legislation increasing the debt ceiling. The bill was supported by all but four Republicans. For some Republicans, this was the first time they had ever voted for a debt ceiling increase. Perhaps the reason they did so this time was because the legislation also promised to reduce federal spending by $4.5 trillion over the next decade.
Starting today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's mortgage pricing adjustments will increase fees for borrowers with high credit scores while reducing costs for those with subpar credit scores. This upside-down policy is blatantly socialism, and one can't help but wonder if anyone in the Biden administration learned anything from the subprime mortgage meltdown that occurred more than a decade ago.
U.S. Debt Ceiling Standoff: Platinum Coins, the 14th Amendment Could Be Paths OutMay 2, 2023 - 05:58:41 PDT
With Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy locked in a standoff over raising the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, some observers have suggested possible workarounds to avoid disaster if the two sides do not reach a deal. Some commentators suggested said the U.S. Treasury could mint high-value platinum...
(Bloomberg) -- Yields on Treasury bills for early June soared in New York trading Tuesday in the wake of a warning from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the US government could run into debt-ceiling limitations as soon as the start of next month.
A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong wiped out an initial gain in post-holiday trading, as manufacturing data sowed doubts over the strength of the nation’s recovery.
The financial world is increasingly warning of the pain to come for owners of office buildings.
Markets are overly optimistic that the Federal Reserve will quickly switch to cutting rates, a panel of financial services executives and large global investors warned Monday.
IBM To Stop Hiring For Roles That Can Be Replaced By AI; Nearly 8,000 Workers To Be Replaced By AutomationMay 2, 2023 - 05:46:52 PDT
One month ago, to much dismay and widespread denial, Goldman predicted that AI could lead to some 300 million layoffs among highly paid, non-menial workers in the US and Europe.
When Silicon Valley Bank was busy imploding earlier this year, and depositors were pulling their money out of shaky lenders to put it in safer-looking banks, the joke was that everyone was going to end up banking with JP Morgan. Now that the US uber-lender has agreed to acquire most of First Republic, another stricken bank, the gag is even less funny.
For Morgan Stanley and others, the cuts show Wall Street is wrangling with a slump that's dragging on for longer than expected
‘Other Problems Might Be Lurking’: Strategist Is Unconvinced by Jamie Dimon’s Bank Crisis CommentsMay 2, 2023 - 05:42:31 PDT
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's assertion that turmoil in the banking sector was effectively ended by the resolution of First Republic may be premature, one analyst has suggested.
reasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US lawmakers that her department’s ability to use special accounting maneuvers to stay within the federal debt limit could be exhausted as soon as the start of June.
The funding panic triggered by the shock collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others in March may be subsiding, but the scramble for money by banks isn’t over.