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"The US economy looks to be pointed in a troubling direction. Federal unemployment data shows record low unemployment, but state-level data paints a different picture: one where the current 'stagflation lite' conditions could soon become fully stagflationary." ~ Peter C. Earle
The Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on Wednesday could mark the end of its rate hiking campaign, the most aggressive from the central bank since the 1980s.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the benchmark funds rate to 5% to 5.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET, and investors will search for indications on whether policymakers will pause on future rate hikes.
Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Signals Pause; Warns Of 'Tighter Credit Standards': ZHMay 3, 2023 - 11:08:29 PDT
Since March 22 (the last FOMC statement, which included the dot-plot and economic projections), markets have been 'just a little bit turbo' but amid all that vol, bonds and stocks are modestly higher while the dollar has tumbled and alternative currencies (bitcoin and gold) have outperformed...
Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes: CNBCMay 3, 2023 - 11:03:31 PDT
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.
The US federal government has raised the so-called debt ceiling 104 times since 1944.
Veterans of such crises (and I include myself in that category) know that once the dominoes start falling, they keep falling until some government intervention of a particularly draconian kind is imposed.
May 3, 2023 - 07:37:51 PDT
Under Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi (now Hakeem Jeffries), the US economy is addicted to gov … spending and debt. Some are marvelling that M2 Money VELOCITY (GDP/M2) is rising as if this is a miracle. It isn’t. Under Biden, public debt has increased by $3.7 trillion. But as The Fed pulls back and M2 Money growth slows, M2 Money Velocity is rising. But still below historic levels.
Where the intrigue comes in is how the central bank proceeds from here.
Druckenmiller On America's Debt Crisis: "It's Like Watching A Horror Movie Unfold"May 3, 2023 - 07:11:55 PDT
“The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold,” Druckenmiller, who once was George Soros' chief strategist and now runs his own Duquesne Family Office, said in a speech Monday at the USC Marshall School of Business.
Services Survey Show Growth In April But Export Demand Is "Reigniting Inflationary Pressures"May 3, 2023 - 07:10:44 PDT
Despite hard data disappointment, soft survey data for Manufacturing showed an improvement in April and analysts expected the Services sector to do the same with modest gains.
May 3, 2023 - 07:09:07 PDT
This is last data dump for mortgage demand (applications) before Biden’s idiotic woke mortgage policies go into effect (taxing those with good credit to subsidize those with lousy credit) tak…
Gold prices traded marginally higher on Wednesday morning as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's latest decision on interest rates.
Gold prices held steady above the key $2,000-level on Wednesday, while investors turned their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later in the day.
ADP Payrolls Unexpectedly Surge To 9 Month HIgh Amid "Clear Slowdown In Pay Growth"May 3, 2023 - 05:42:33 PDT
Following yesterday's ugly JOLTS data, which was so bad it actually sent stocks lower amid fears of a hard landing, moments ago the ADP - always one to surprise with its shocking wrong data, constant revisions notwithstanding - shocked when it printed showing a huge gain for April private payrolls, which more than doubled from a downward revised 142K print in March to 296K in April.
Wall Street’s bearish stance toward the dollar, about as pronounced as it’s been since early 2022, is on the cusp of a serious test.
In pre-market trading on Wednesday, PacWest fell a further 11 per cent, Western Alliance dropped 7 per cent and Metropolitan Bank lost 8 per cent. They had already posted steep losses in the previous session following the failure of First Republic over the weekend, the second-largest bank failure in US history.
Half of America’s Banks Are Potentially Insolvent – This Is How a Credit Crunch BeginsMay 3, 2023 - 05:34:26 PDT
The twin crashes in US commercial real estate and the US bond market have collided with $9 trillion uninsured deposits in the American banking system. Such deposits can vanish in an afternoon in the cyber age.
Japan Economy Minister Goto Urges Us Banks, Regulators to Tackle Liquidity RisksMay 3, 2023 - 05:33:13 PDT
Banking sector problems in the United States and Europe were caused by liquidity and interest rates risks, but won't impact on Japan's economy and financial system for now, Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said on Tuesday.
When UBS Group AG integrates Credit Suisse Group AG in the coming months, the Swiss bank plans to run staff from the scandal-prone former rival through what Chairman Colm Kelleher dubbed a “culture filter” to weed out potential bad apples.