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Buffett Turns Gloomy: The "Incredible Period" For The US Economy Is Coming To An EndMay 8, 2023 - 05:30:19 PDT
While Warren Buffett's insights on the economy are traditionally cheerful and uplifting - usually hitting at time of peak pessimism in the form of self-serving NYT op-eds or CNBC vignettes (and usually around the time the Omaha billionaire knows that the government will backstop his TBTF investments, unlike those of pretty much anyone else), on Saturday the head of Berkshire...
US equity futures struggled for direction on Monday, pointing to a subdued open on Wall Street as traders assess the outlook for monetary policy ahead of key inflation data later this week.
Global shares edged up in light trading on Monday, ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could prove instrumental in setting expectations for the outlook for monetary policy. The dollar came under pressure as a deadline for lawmakers to resolve a standoff over the U.S. government's borrowing limit drew ever closer. Friday's robust U.S. payrolls report has prompted...
After a record-setting 2022, central banks continued to buy gold in the first quarter of 2023, setting a new Q1 record.Overall, global central bank gold reserves increased by 228 tons through the first three months of 2023. This was 38% higher than the previous first-quarter record set in 2013.
While the US government is not currently adding to the national debt due to being up against the debt ceiling, it is working overtime trying to keep the government afloat.Significantly, the interest on the national debt is skyrocketing even with the temporary lull in borrowing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 256k jobs were added in April with major revisions down in previous months. Meanwhile, the Household Survey reported only 139k jobs in April, the lowest amount since November last year.
The precious metals were set to continue their BREAKOUT until the supposed Positive Jobs number came out on Friday... so what's next? Well, that depends on the next stage of the Banking Crisis. Also, when are these Crazy Broader Markets finally going to start to Correct or Collapse Lower..
Central Bank Gold Demand Hits First-Quarter Record, Investments Surge on U.S. Banking TurmoilMay 5, 2023 - 13:04:10 PDT
Demand for gold among central banks notched a first-quarter record high in the three months to the end of March.
Gold beat a fast retreat on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data tempered expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Consumer Credit Shocker: Credit Card Debt Explodes At 2nd Fastest Pace On Record Just As Rates Hit All-Time HighMay 5, 2023 - 12:58:02 PDT
And so the scene for both the next crisis and credit crunch are set, because just like Americans couldn't afford their mortgages in 2008, hoping instead that some greater fool would take it off their hands at the right moment, so too now they are maxing out credit cards (just as rates hit all time high) knowing they will never repay the debt, but instead hope that the coming bank crisis will allow them to quietly sneak away without repaying their debt. Come to think of it, the bank crisis is already here...
Financial markets should get ready for rates higher for longer than hitherto anticipated due to the absence of factors to cause a sharp slowdown.
The Fed has trained the trading-rats all too well, and there is no way to avoid the unintended consequences of the Fed's large-scale human behavioral experiment.
If bond yields (blue) break down and bond prices (orange) breakout higher, we could see some mean reversion which would lead to lower interest rates. But if the patterns break the other way, it may mean higher interest rates.
May 5, 2023 - 12:07:34 PDT
Ok, it is well-known that Biden was the stupidest man in the US Senate. And with Washington’s Patty Murray in the Senate, that is quite an accomplishment. But Biden is President and is still …
Americans Haven’t Been This Worried About Their Bank Deposits Since the 2008 Financial CrisisMay 5, 2023 - 12:04:39 PDT
Nearly half of the 1,013 adults polled said they were “very worried” (19%) or “moderately worried” (29%) about the safety of the money they had tucked away in a bank or other financial institution, Gallup said. About 20% said they weren’t worried at all. Almost a third said they’re “not too worried.”
Ignore The Noise: Job Market Is Cracking As Birth-Death Model "Adds" Near Record 378,000 JobsMay 5, 2023 - 11:59:00 PDT
Despite today's laughable, 13th consecutive beat of expectations in a row, a number which is only as credible as Biden's 81 million voters...
The US money-supply data for March-2023, which were published on Tuesday of this week, reveal that the monetary inflation rate has continued its ‘swan dive.’ As illustrated below, the year-over-year growth rate of US True Money Supply (TMS) is now around negative 10%, that is, at the end of March-2023, the US money supply was about 10% smaller than it was a year earlier. The last time there was a double-digit annual percentage contraction in the US money supply was the early-1930s.
The U.S. Commercial Bank Credit is now contracting. The last time credit deflation was this extreme was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.
Just a few months ago, Mohamed El-Erian was decrying a “paradox of financial conditions” as he called them. Writing in the Financial Times, El-Erian was speaking for quite a lot of establishment types, Economists mostly, who were perplexed by the misbehavior across the markets. The Fed like the ECB was trying to fight inflation, yet that fight was allegedly being undone by falling interest rates.
Mortgage demand dropped last week despite a slight easing in interest rates, while trouble in the banking sector makes jumbo loans more expensive.