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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the odds stacked against him as he reckons the US economy can skirt recession thanks to banking, politics, and even the weather.\
The rolling deficit has been growing since November of last year, driven by rising nominal spending and declining revenue. April tax collections were particularly weak, resulting in a one-month surplus of only $173 billion this year (or $99 billion adjusted for the effects of timing shifts), compared to $308 billion ($373 billion adjusted for timing shifts) in April of 2022.
The Market Commentariat think deflation will counter inflation, rates will fall, and recession will be limited. The world is more complex - supply side factors are more volatile. Stagflation is a more likely outcome than recession.
May 9, 2023 - 07:45:27 PDT
Housing? At least home price growth is slowing and even negative in some cities. But housing is still unaffordable for millions of Americans.
Now that the overlapping crises are upon us and the banquet of consequences is being served, we'll see just who our elites and leadership really are.
No more than 38% of Americans are confident in U.S. economic leadership within Congress or the Biden administration.
Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd., discusses the outlook for energy, industrial metals and gold. He speaks with Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by economic uncertainties including the U.S. debt ceiling stand-off as traders braced for inflation readings that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy.
Robert Kiyosaki Warns Inflation Is Systemic & Investors Should Buy Gold, Real Estate, Gas, and FoodMay 9, 2023 - 06:02:37 PDT
"The whole system is in trouble. My biggest concern is that inflation is now systemic," personal finance guru Robert Kiyosaki said.
May 9, 2023 - 06:01:41 PDT
Public confidence in Jerome Powell’s leadership of the Federal Reserve has dropped precipitously, according to a new survey, and is now at or below his predecessors’ as the central bank wages its war against inflation.
Financial Stability Experts at the Fed Turn a Wary Eye on Commercial Real EstateMay 9, 2023 - 05:59:58 PDT
A financial stability report from the Federal Reserve flagged concerns tied to rising interest rates, including in commercial real estate.
SEC Staff Throw Cold Water on Calls for Ban on Short Selling of Bank StocksMay 9, 2023 - 05:54:04 PDT
Gary Gensler, against advice of career workers in the SEC, is pushing to ban the short-selling of regional bank stocks, in the wake of recent collapses and falling stock prices.
Fed Survey Suggests Inflation Will Slow. Why It May Not Happen Soon Enough: Barron'sMay 9, 2023 - 05:49:25 PDT
Stress in the banking sector is cited as a top threat to the economy, Biden proposes new rules to pay stranded airline passengers, and other news to start your day.
Now that we’re post-FOMC and ECB we have a clear playing field for another 6 weeks. The US debt ceiling theater is now center-stage along with completing the transition away from LIBOR, which will become an anachronism at the end of Q2. SOFR will be the law of the land in the US come July. The change over from LIBOR is effectively complete with LIBOR-based Eurodollar...
You may have heard the term “BRICS” when reading about world affairs and wondered what it was all about. As we watch the American dollar and economy lose power on the world stage, this alliance could quickly move to take its place, especially as other countries that used to be allied with us move over this bloc. As a matter of opinion, I think that on the global stage, BRICS is a...
Despite another strong set of earnings from the oil companies, the oil stock rally of the past two years appears to have come to an end.
Despite the mixed signals being sent by various sectors, the energy markets remain surprisingly resilient with oil inventories declining.
Rising interest rates, falling prices and waning demand for office space following the pandemic had strained the commercial property market. But these troubles intensified after this year’s failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic raised worries about other regional banks that account for the bulk of commercial real estate loans.
A Federal Reserve report warned that banks’ concerns about slower growth could lead them to make fewer loans, accelerating an economic downturn, and highlighted commercial real estate as an area of heightened risk that will draw more scrutiny from bank examiners.
Expectations among US stock investors that the worst of pressures may have passed will likely be proven wrong as recession risk still looms, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.