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US Manufacturers Can’t Shake That Inflation Feeling Even as Supply Snarls EaseMay 18, 2023 - 11:54:53 PDT
When prices go up, it tends to stick," said Prange, who oversees $3 billion worth of purchases of electronic parts, plastics, and metal as the top supply chain manager at Milwaukee Tool, a venerable Wisconsin toolmaker owned by Hong Kong-based Techtronic Industries Co.\
Wall Street appears to be sleeping through Washington’s latest debt ceiling crisis. It should wake up.
Debt Ceiling: Support for 14th Amendment Solution Mounts on Capitol HillMay 18, 2023 - 11:35:35 PDT
The support on Capitol Hill for what was once a fringe legal theory is growing by the hour as the debt ceiling talks head into their final days.
May 18, 2023 - 08:37:05 PDT
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse in 2023? You have to understand what forward rate spreads are telling us and why.
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble For 13th Straight Month, "Weaknesses Were Widespread"May 18, 2023 - 08:36:18 PDT
This is the 13th straight monthly decline in the LEI (and 14th month of 16) - the longest streak of declines since 'Lehman' (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)
Breaking: Fed Futures Now Show a 40% Chance of a 25 Bps Rate Hike in June, up From ~5% Last WeekMay 18, 2023 - 08:04:26 PDT
In a week with 14 Fed speakers, expectations are shifting rapidly. Futures now see just a 4% chance of rate cuts beginning in July and 26% chance in September. Fed expectations have rapidly shifted in the hawkish direction. The Fed is not convinced the fight again inflation is over.
And if bonds can’t rally, whether the economy falters in a meaningful way or not, that too could prove problematic for a stock market that appears far out of equilibrium with competing financial assets. In short, it looks like Mr. Market is still in denial over TINA’s passing.
Living in Biden’s economy. The ongoing train wreck is slow motion. US existing home sales tanked -23.16% year-over-year (YoY) as the economy slows and The Fed tightens.…
Not satisfied with the billions in interest they're earning on excess reserves, or the unlimited facilities The Fed opened up with the BTFP to bail out regional banks' losses on their bond portfolios, The Wall Street Journal reports that banks have spent the past week or so testing a cunning plan to push more losses on to the US taxpayer.
Global Debt Nears Record Highs as Rate Hikes Trigger ‘Crisis of Adaptation’May 18, 2023 - 07:03:51 PDT
Global debt grew by $8.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2023 to a near-record high of $305 trillion.
The global financial system is fragile and could collapse anytime due to excessive debt, derivatives, and artificially low-interest rates followed by the insane pace of recent hikes in too short of time.
The current lull in inflation offers the perfect opportunity to take advantage of cheap inflation hedges before price growth starts to accelerate again.
Gold prices inched lower on Thursday as the dollar held firm and optimism over U.S. debt-ceiling talks reduced the metal's safe-haven appeal.
After the prior week's jump in jobless claims (which was later excused by Massachusetts explaining their data was all fraudulent), last week saw initial claims drop notably to 242k (lower than the 251k exp).
May 18, 2023 - 06:05:38 PDT
Discover the factors shaping the US dollar's status, the growing trend of de-dollarization, and what history reveals about its potential future.
U.S. inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes next month. One is that a range of worries - about the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, the health of banks, and the global economy's outlook - are burnishing the dollar's safe-haven credentials. Meanwhile, there are some signs that the Fed may have to raise rates again,...
Treasury Cash Remains Below $100 Billion as Debt-Ceiling Standoff Drags OnMay 18, 2023 - 05:46:52 PDT
The amount of funds the US government has to pay its bills rebounded after falling to the lowest level in more than a month, though there’s still a risk it will run out of money by early next month if the debt limit isn’t raised or suspended before then.
The Bank of England has insisted it did not fuel a boom in house prices following the global financial crisis.
The Bank of England is holding a “Festival of Mistakes” this week, celebrating lessons learnt from financial disasters of the distant past. Economists at the BoE and the European Central Bank underestimated the scale and persistence of inflation. Across the world, poor forecasts have contributed to central bankers failing to do their main job: maintaining price stability.
The $1.3 trillion market for reselling leveraged loans is facing its lowest profitability in years, potentially making it harder for lower-rated companies to refinance debt.