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Cliff Asness Warns Stocks a ‘Scary Place’ If US Enters Recession: BloombergMay 30, 2023 - 12:30:14 PDT
The billionaire quant investor also discusses the possibility of “immaculate” deflation and the risks of private equity investing on “Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein.”
Time will tell if this most recent sell signal will also prove effective in this way. It’s interesting to note, however, that it also culminated in an even more rare signal on Friday when both the NDX and VXN rose more than 2% on the day (last seen on 2/2). This is a pretty strong indication that the options market is not nearly as sanguine as the equities market at this stage of the rally. And that in itself may be an important development to pay attention to.
The most widely used index in the world is the S&P 500, which is supposed to be a broad barometer of the US stock market but has increasingly been driven by a small number of tech giants. This year, the S&P 500 is up by about 10 per cent but with much of its returns driven by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.
Rand Paul Introduces Alternative to Biden-McCarthy Debt Bill: ‘Get Our Fiscal House in Order'May 30, 2023 - 12:16:44 PDT
Paul's bill would raise the debt ceiling by just $500 billion, forcing Congress to act in the near future to address America's debt problem with a more lasting solution. The bill would also impose automatic budget cuts to be imposed each year moving forward.
The Money Doctor Who Has Slayed Inflation for 50 Years Says the Fed Has Overcorrected So BadlyMay 30, 2023 - 12:09:36 PDT
Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins predicts the Fed’s two wrong turns resulted in out of control inflation, and will be followed by a painful and unnecessary economic contraction.
The United States House of Representatives’ passage of the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 is a big Republican failure addressing the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling would be raised above the current limit of $31 trillion by $1.5 trillion or through March 2024, whichever comes first.
May 30, 2023 - 08:42:09 PDT
Unlike his three immediate predecessors who chaired the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan), who all had doctoral degrees in economics, the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has a law degree from Georgetown University.
The current generation of young people is far more sympathetic toward socialism than older people, and even more sympathetic than now-old people were when they were young. I’m not just talking about the old bromide that young socialist hearts become old capitalist brains; young people today are more sympathetic to socialism than at any point since surveys have been conducted. The question of how to think about the basic organization of society might be called “The Socialist Generation Debate.”
"Fed officials may worry that the disinflation process has stalled. For this reason, the latest data likely increases uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy."
The federal government will spend $6.3 trillion in 2023, 27 percent is discretionary and 73 percent is mandatory.
What happens when you bleed your workforce while enriching those who already own assets with one bubble after another, all in the name of "fostering growth"? To answer this, let's modify a felicitous phrase: Sorry Our Demographic Karma Ran Over Your Economic Dogma.
May 30, 2023 - 08:12:06 PDT
Yes, The Fed’s M2 Money printing press went wild with COVID emergency refief. And so did the discrepancy between the top 1% and the bottom 50% in terms of “Share of Total Net Worth Held.” The top 1% is in blue and the bottom 50% is in red. M2 Money is in green.
In return for minor cutbacks in spending, and a token roll-in work requirement for food stamps, Democrats will get to rubber stamp every pet clean energy boondoggle they seek.
Landfill operations are raking in the dough thanks to free money subsidies they don't even need to be profitable.
Mike Shedlock (aka, Mish) makes a good point: the US is already in recession if we look at GDI (gross domestic income) rather than GDP (gross domestic product). The US has already declined two consecutive quarters in terms of negative GDI growth.
Cheaper house prices, a favourable exchange rate, cost-friendlier engineers and Government research and tax credits have all been attributed to a boom in Transatlantic moves.
Median Sale Price in San Francisco Drops a Staggering $220,000 From a Year AgoMay 30, 2023 - 07:42:34 PDT
The concerning data was laid bare last week by Redfin, and marks a significant shift in the American real estate landscape following a historic surge seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The 20-City Composite dropped 1.15% MoM (slightly better than the 1.6% drop expected) on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis but rose 0.45% MoM on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Conference Board Confidence Drops To Worst Since 2022, Labor Market Showing CracksMay 30, 2023 - 07:38:30 PDT
After declining in April, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment index was expected to accelerate its drop (after peaking in Dec 2022 for this mini-cycle). The picture is murkey however as the headline print beat expectations (102.3 vs 99.0 exp) but that is down from April's final print of 103.7 (revised up from 101.3). Under the hood, both current and future expectations indices declined (from revised higher prints)...
May 30, 2023 - 06:35:33 PDT
Nearly a quarter of central banks are looking to increase gold reserves this year, spurred on by geopolitical worries, interest rate concerns and rising inflation pressures. Up to 24% of central banks were looking to raise gold holdings in 2023, according to a new survey from the World Gold Council.