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A hawkish message from the Federal Reserve amid a robust stock market rally is presenting investors with a conundrum: how to maintain exposure to rising equities while also guarding against the possible upheavals tighter monetary policy can bring.
Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries sold off Wednesday, while longer-date bonds rallied, after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to raise interest rates by another half-point this year following the first pause in the central bank’s 15 month hiking campaign. That sent the yield-curve inversion, as measured by the gap between two- and 10-year securities, to more than 90 basis points — a level last seen in March — and approaching this cycle’s 109 basis point extreme.
Investors expect the US Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates, with most not anticipating cuts to begin until well into 2024.
China’s weakening economy prompted the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time since August, and expectations are growing for more stimulus targeted at ailing industries including the property sector.
A shift in Britain’s mortgage market is delaying the impact of higher interest rates on the economy, increasing the risk of the Bank of England fumbling its decision on how much more it needs to do to curtail inflation.
European Central Bank Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points After Fed Opts to PauseJun 15, 2023 - 05:32:27 PDT
The European Central Bank raised rates on Thursday as it attempts to bring down persistently high inflation.
Nasdaq futures are leading US stocks lower early on Thursday, as investors weigh the Fed's plan for two more hikes.
World stocks slipped from 18-month peaks and the dollar pushed higher on Thursday as traders readied for what is expected to be the eighth straight rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) later. Europe's groggy start came after Wednesday's first pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rapid hiking cycle in over a year,,,
The Federal Government ran a deficit last month of $240B. Revenue continues to be at or below levels last year while expenses continue to grow.
Every month, we get government job reports that tell us the labor market is booming. Then we get an avalanche of mainstream headlines telling us that this is a sign the economy is just fine.But these government job numbers simply don't make sense.
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) put rate hikes on pause at the June meeting, although it indicated we should expect additional hikes before the end of the year.The question is how long will the pause last and will the next Fed move actually be a rate cut?
The annual In Gold We Trust Report has become the most keenly awaited publication in the gold world. It is fact-filled and covers every aspect of the market. In this issue, I edit the highlights. I also look at the melt-up in stocks, the gold regime, the Yuan and the Yen, and so much more.
Today’s Fed announcement and the Fed chief's speech will likely indicate the Fed’s take on inflation for the next few months… and then gold is likely to either dip to a buy zone or it will shoot out of the congestion zone.
Jun 14, 2023 - 12:40:52 PDT
The Fed's Summary of Economic projections is far more interesting. I highlighted the median economic forecast in pink. Each dot represents the position of someone at the meeting. Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is clueless.
Whether the Fed pauses, pivots, or not with respect to their current quest to raise interest rates does not reverse the damage that has been done by intentionally creating inflation for more than a century.
The hawkish pause - signaled by the dot-plot - prompted a kneejerk surge in rate-change expectations with July now pricing in a 70% chance of a hike and September a 95% chance of a hike as December and January have now priced out any rate-cuts... The question is, will Powell reverse all this?
Since the last FOMC statement on May 3rd, where Powell hiked rates 25bps but offered some dovish-speak during the presser, stocks have soared (well to be more accurate, mega-cap tech stocks have exploded higher) while bitcoin has been dumped. The dollar is modestly higher with gold and bonds slightly lower... There are now no Fed members expecting a recession in 2023...
While the central bank will likely skip a rate hike on Wednesday for June, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will remain hawkish.
Jared 'Dethrone King Dollar' Bernstein Confirmed As Top Biden Econ Adviser; Yellen Warns De-Dollarization Efforts Will GrowJun 14, 2023 - 09:47:21 PDT
Bernstein's confirmation came coincidentally the same day as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. dollar’s international status as the chief reserve currency is slowly diminishing as other countries diversify their assets, warns
North Carolina House Republicans want state savings held as gold bullion. A bill would study establishing a state gold depository.