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    China’s Economy May Be in a “Liquidity Trap”
Jun 22, 2023 - 06:22:12 PDT
China's central bank has cut interest rates again as the country grapples with the challenges of a potential liquidity trap caused by the aftermath of COVID. The government plans to boost economic activity through a debt-financed infrastructure-building program and a weakened currency to stimulate exports. However, these measures may be less effective after recent shocks, including trade tensions with the US, restrictions on the tech sector, pandemic-related lockdowns, and a housing market crisis.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi emphasized the importance of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy to support wage growth and achieve the 2% inflation target. Noguchi expects core consumer inflation to dip below 2% in September or October due to the fading impact of past increases in raw material costs. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent congressional testimony signaled the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes, highlighting the Fed's commitment to combating inflation.
Turkey's lira plunged to a historic low against the dollar as the central bank's long-awaited interest rate increase fell short of market projections. The lira reached a new record low of 24.2 against the dollar after the Turkish central bank raised its key interest rate by 650 basis points to 15%. This move marked a significant shift from President Tayyip Erdogan's previous policy of keeping rates low. Additionally, emerging market stocks remained subdued following the hawkish comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The Bank of England's decision to raise borrowing costs by more than expected heightened fears of an impending recession in the British economy. With the main interest rate reaching a 15-year high of 5%, borrowers, especially homeowners looking to refinance, will face significant challenges. The surprise half-percentage-point increase, the 13th consecutive hike, reflects the central bank's concern over stubbornly high inflation.
Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to leave their interest rates unchanged amid easing inflation. Economists anticipate both central banks to maintain rates for the rest of the year, with potential rate cuts in 2024.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to withdraw a significant portion of the liquidity they injected into banks over the past decade, according to a paper by a Fed economist. With high inflation and rising interest rates, the extra liquidity is deemed unnecessary. Both central banks have been actively increasing interest rates and reducing their bond purchases to combat inflation. The paper raises the issue of determining the appropriate level of cash reserves in the banking system as monetary stimulus becomes less required.
Stock futures declined as the tech rally faded, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their worst performances in June. The market's three-day decline disrupted a five-week win streak, following the broader market index reaching a year-high level. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on future rate hikes to combat inflation dampened investor hopes of an imminent end to the tightening cycle. The Fed kept rates steady but signaled the possibility of two more increases this year. Powell's upcoming report and jobless claims data are being closely watched by investors.
Bond investors grow more concerned about a potential US recession as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signals further interest rate increases. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year Treasuries has inverted, a pattern observed before past recessions. The impact of Powell's testimony is compounded by faster-than-expected UK inflation data, raising speculation of tighter policies by the Bank of England. Central banks globally are turning more hawkish due to prolonged high inflation. Powell reaffirms the Fed's likelihood of two more rate hikes this year, emphasizing the persistent inflationary pressure.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates further. Despite concerns from lawmakers, Powell emphasized the focus on reducing inflation. Stock prices declined as investors reacted to the tighter credit conditions. Money market traders predict one more rate increase in July before the tightening cycle ends. The recent pause in rate hikes raised questions about the Fed's messaging and the balance between curbing inflation and avoiding a recession.
Investors remain skeptical despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments. Futures markets indicate only one more rate increase this year, followed by cuts. The inverted yield curve and concerns about a looming recession contribute to their skepticism. However, not all bond investors believe a downturn is imminent. The Fed's focus on tackling high inflation suggests rate cuts may not happen soon.
European benchmarks declined in early trading following the rate hikes by the central banks of Switzerland and Norway, aimed at tackling inflation. The Bank of England is also expected to raise its main interest rate, currently at a 15-year high of 4.5%. Analysts predict a quarter-percentage point increase to 4.75%, although concerns exist that a larger half-point increase could negatively impact borrowers, particularly the 1.4 million households in the UK set to refinance their mortgages later this year.
With the peak of conventional crude oil behind us, the days of Global Economic Growth are coming to an end.  However, Economists and the Financial Media continue to be clueless.  Thus, this also means most people are invested in the wrong assets, or liabilities masquerading as assets...
    Solid Gold In A Broken World
Jun 21, 2023 - 13:56:53 PDT
In a world of debt, the Federal Reserve is trapped. As the US balance sheet weakens, the demand for gold rises. China strategically positions itself for an economic war, while nations seek alternatives to the weakening USD. Gold becomes a trusted asset for trade settlement, driving its value higher and signaling the decline of the USD's purchasing power.
    The Gold Story Going Forward
Jun 21, 2023 - 13:40:36 PDT
Gold investors in America typically focus on the "fear" trade, while in China, there's a "love" trade for gold during prosperous times. With falling rates in China, the yuan weakens, creating a positive environment for gold. As the US stock market faces uncertainty and potential inflation looms, investors may turn to gold as a safe haven. The weekly gold chart shows a potential double bottom, indicating a potential upward trend. This aligns with the electric car era, empire transition, and de-dollarization, making it an exciting time for gold enthusiasts.
Investing in intangible assets can help minimize inflation and protect wealth. As the value of tangible goods fluctuates, assets like patents and copyrights remain stable. This shift towards intangibles reduces the risk of inflation and provides economic benefits. While caution is necessary, diversifying investments with tangible assets, including gold, can safeguard wealth from market volatility and ensure its preservation. In an uncertain economic landscape, gold serves as a reliable store of value, offering protection against inflation and financial instability.
Inflation fails to revive demand as US economy faces challenges. "Bringing Demand Forward" through low interest rates and credit expansion is no longer effective. Speculative bubbles burst, credit tightens, and consumers struggle under debt. The Everything Bubble is deflating, leaving households with limited purchasing power. Risk mitigation measures are necessary as economies stagnate.
UK experiences a shocking surge in inflation. Core CPI spikes by 0.8% in May, marking the highest increase since 1992. Services sector hit hard, while food inflation remains high. Motor fuel prices plunge. Overall CPI jumps by 8.7%. Inflationary pressures persist globally.
Fed Chief Powell acknowledges the need to update liquidity regulation. However, critics argue the entire Fed's thinking is flawed, relying on ineffective economic models. Calls for genuine banking reforms and recognition of AI's superiority in forecasting. Bias-free approaches prove more successful.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to desperately plead for action at debt summit, as low-income nations face mounting burdens. Bleak warnings of climate crisis and economic fragility loom large. Calls for elusive solutions and uncertain private sector involvement. Debt restructuring efforts offer faint hope. Gloomy outlook overshadows bilateral meetings.
US national debt has surged by over half a trillion dollars in two weeks, reaching $32.03 trillion. Interest payments exceed $2 billion per day, and experts predict the problem to worsen, potentially reaching $50 trillion. The escalating debt crisis raises concerns about repayment and signals a looming downturn. Prominent figures warn of an imminent late-cycle debt crisis, urging caution and action.