Precious metals news

After the Natgas Breakout and now Breakdown, what's next for the volatile gas price??  Nothing can destroy an investment more than the volatile Natgas Market.  In this update, I share my analysis of the natural gas inventories and why the UNG ETF is difficult to trade...

As tensions in the Middle East rise, JP Morgan's Chief Global Markets Strategist, Marco Kolanovic, is spotlighting gold as a prime investment. In a note to clients, while he expressed reservations about equities, Kolanovic strongly recommended bolstering investments in gold and bonds. He emphasized gold's significance amidst current geopolitical risks and its enduring value in uncertain times.

Gold remains resilient despite U.S. rate hikes and the Federal Reserve's narrative, as global governments accumulate it amidst growing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Joseph Stefans from MKS PAMP highlights gold's enduring appeal beyond just being a safe haven. Its role in diversifying from local currencies and countering economic uncertainties keeps it in demand. With some nations favoring gold over U.S. debt, the precious metal might see long-term support, presenting potential advantages for gold in the coming years.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, raised alarms about lingering high inflation, suggesting that rate hikes are still on the table if the economy doesn't cool down. His recent remarks hinted at an unstable economic outlook, where the current measures might be insufficient to curb escalating inflation. Despite some suggestions of maintaining steady rates in the near future, the persistent threat of "meaningful tightening" looms large. Powell's warnings, coupled with concerns voiced by other Fed officials, paint a bleak picture of potential economic pitfalls ahead.

Positive economic data might be misleading, while significant negative indicators are often overlooked by mainstream media. Investors should be wary of overly positive news and pay more attention to warning signs with better predictive value. While economies like China, Japan, and Germany previously showed strength, they're now facing slowdowns or recessions. A global recession seems imminent. Instead of panicking, investors should diversify, consider assets like gold and silver, and focus on sectors like energy and agriculture that remain resilient over time.

"Bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital warns that the U.S. risks losing its status as the world's reserve currency if it doesn't rein in its spending. With rising interest rates and a national debt of $33.59 trillion, Gundlach stresses the situation will deteriorate if the Federal Reserve persists with rate hikes and the debt continues to soar.

We're in the midst of a pivotal moment in the financial world...

"Under the Biden administration, the rate of homelessness among baby boomers has reached alarming levels, unseen since the Great Depression. Despite being the most affluent generation in U.S. history, half of the current homeless population is now over 65—a sharp increase from just one-tenth in the 1990s. Repeated recessions and questionable public policies, especially under "Bidenomics," have eroded their savings, inflated housing prices, and left many without homes even after decades of work and saving."

Over the past decade, US home prices have shockingly doubled, with a 33% surge in just the last three years. Rentals haven't been spared, with monthly costs jumping significantly. This housing inflation, combined with the economic crunch, has pushed many Americans to opt for smaller living spaces like RVs and tiny homes as makeshift solutions. Today's economic distress, reminiscent of the Great Depression's severity, is hidden behind modern adaptations: EBT cards replacing soup lines and RV clusters taking the place of shanty towns, masking the true extent of our current financial crisis.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) plummeted for the 18th month in a row in September, hitting its weakest point since June 2020. Signaling deepening economic turmoil, the US economy, already grappling with rising interest rates and inflation, is now on a clear trajectory towards a predicted recession in early 2024.

Housing affordability is at a decades-low due to supply issues and rising mortgage rates. Existing home sales in September fell 2.0%, marking a consistent decline over the past two years. Sales are at their lowest since the 2010 crisis, especially in regions other than the Northeast. With first-time buyers comprising just 27% of purchases and mortgage rates over 8%, the housing market's affordability challenges persist.

Problems in the commercial real estate  (CRE) sector continue to bubble under the surface. This is a major stress point for US banks and could precipitate the next phase of the financial crisis.
A combination of high interest rates and declining tenancy is putting the squeeze on commercial real estate owners. As a result, banks hold a growing portfolio of delinquent CRE loans.

Long-term bond investors are increasingly reluctant to lend to the U.S. government, possibly due to its excessive borrowing. Despite facing significant market losses, political discussions continue to focus on further debt-driven spending. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently reached 4.9%, the highest since 2007, as the Treasury Department increases its borrowing. After the 2008 crisis, global governments, including the U.S., lowered interest rates, sometimes even going negative. This historically unprecedented situation led to massive debt accumulations. With rising interest rates, the U.S. now faces potential interest costs of over $13 trillion in the next decade.

October's Philly Fed Business Outlook showed a reading of -9, slightly improving from September's -13 but still below expectations. This marks the 15th negative reading in 17 months. Although there's a slight increase in new orders and shipments, the price indexes show overall inflation. More worryingly, future indicators are on the decline, with future orders, shipments, and capital expenditures indexes all dropping, reminiscent of the 2008 'Lehman' lows. This downturn raises questions about the impact of Biden's economic policies.

The US debt has surpassed $33 trillion. Contrary to Biden's claims, the budget deficit remains high due to continuous spending and ongoing conflicts. The Federal Reserve is grappling with the repercussions of this massive debt. Effective monetary policy requires fiscal responsibility, which is currently lacking. Rising yields are impacting the long end of the yield curve and bank balance sheets. Despite Yellen's praise, Biden's approach to debt and foreign affairs remains questionable.

The US government under Bidenomics has massively increased its debt, whereas households and businesses have reduced theirs. This rise in government debt is causing inflation concerns and pushing up yields. While households have decreased their debt since the pandemic, the government's debt-to-GDP ratio has surged. This trend could risk the US experiencing economic stagnation similar to Japan's lost decades. Additionally, private sector bank credit has recently dropped.

The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims dropped to 198k, below expectations. Ohio saw a significant decrease in claims, reaching near-record lows. However, continuing claims rose to 1.734 million, the highest since July. Despite recent increases in WARN notices, which indicate potential mass layoffs, there was a sudden large drop in these notices, the most significant since November 2020. Seasonal factors may be influencing these numbers.

When Black Monday brought the largest one-day crash in history, nearly every corner of the market plummeted...

Every time retail sales come in higher than expected, the mainstream media breathlessly reports this as proof that the American consumer is strong and resilient. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained that these retail sales numbers aren't a sign of a strong economy. They just reflect Americans paying more for less. And what's worse, they're burying themselves in debt to do it.

Gold experienced a significant surge on Friday, which many believe is not just a short-term rally but the beginning of a more substantial upward move, driven by growing concerns in the Mid-East and increasing global debt. Despite arguments about the strength of the dollar and rising interest rates, the accelerating debt suggests potential hyperinflation in the future. This could lead to an unprecedented rush into tangible investments like gold and silver, positioning gold for a potentially robust performance ahead.