Precious metals news

The U.S. labor market is poised to be a crucial buffer against potential Federal Reserve policy errors in 2024. With the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts being a focal point, the strength of the job market remains vital for averting a severe recession. The unemployment rate is expected to stay below 4% for a record stretch, showcasing an inclusive job market with significant gains for prime-age women, workers with disabilities, and Black men. This robust employment scenario, reflecting the longest period of such strength since the 1960s, is instrumental in mitigating the impact of high consumer prices. Notably, wages are increasing at a rate outpacing inflation, and sustained productivity growth is expected to maintain these wage gains, thereby bolstering the U.S. economy in the face of monetary policy changes.

Saudi Arabia has officially joined the BRICS bloc, as confirmed by state TV, marking a significant shift in global alliances. This move aligns the kingdom with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with other new members including the UAE, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia. The decision reflects Saudi Arabia's efforts to diversify economic partnerships amid changing geopolitical dynamics, particularly with the U.S. and China. With China as its largest oil customer, Saudi Arabia's entry into BRICS, led by Chinese advocacy, represents a strategic pivot towards enhancing its economic and geopolitical stance globally.

Join Mike Maloney for a deep dive into the current economic landscape and 2024 market predictions with Paul Brownstein. Paul is extremely bullish on Bitcoin and gold as wise alternatives to fiat currencies. Why? It's all about adopting a risk-first strategy in an unpredictable economy. Paul says a blend of patience and strategic defense can set you up for speculative gains. Brownstein, with his unique blend of experience from the restaurant industry to trading and derivatives, brings a fresh perspective on market trends, inflation, and the looming crisis.

HSBC has made a significant leap in the financial sector by introducing the first institutional trades of tokenised gold. Utilizing Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), HSBC has tokenised the ownership of physical gold stored in its London vault. This move is part of HSBC's broader digital strategy, which includes HSBC Orion, their platform for digital assets launched earlier this year, and plans to unveil a digital assets custody service in 2024.

Gold's performance in 2023 defied expectations by thriving amidst global economic challenges. This resilience was fueled by a mix of market volatility, geopolitical unrest, and shifts in US policies. In 2024, gold's appeal is expected to surge due to three key factors. Firstly, a shift towards a more dovish US monetary policy, coupled with a slowdown in US economic growth and stabilizing inflation, bodes well for gold. Secondly, a weakening US dollar, as the global economy gains on the US and central banks continue their gold-buying spree, further supports gold's prospects. Finally, gold benefits from bullish investor sentiment, driven by ongoing risks and uncertainties.

Now that the 2024 Happy New Year celebrations are behind us, let's look at some good news.  Global conventional oil discoveries hit an ALL-TIME Record low in 2023.  Even though global exploration spending increased last year, discoveries fell to the lowest level in the past 100 years...

Happy New Year from me and everybody at SchiffGold! Here's hoping it is an absolutely fantastic year.
So, have you made any New Year's resolutions?

While the market applauds record U.S. oil production surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia, how sustainable is this supply?  Also, what is happening with the critical U.S. diesel supply and inventories?  And how would a recession impact U.S. fuel consumption in 2024...

On the final trading day, metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and aluminum experiencing slight increases, while gold slightly decreased. Despite this, gold is poised to conclude the year with a 14% gain, marking a strong performance amidst a volatile year for metals. Copper is expected to finish the year over 3% higher, and aluminum approximately unchanged.

On the final trading day, metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and aluminum experiencing slight increases, while gold slightly decreased. Despite this, gold is poised to conclude the year with a 14% gain, marking a strong performance amidst a volatile year for metals. Copper is expected to finish the year over 3% higher, and aluminum approximately unchanged.

The global economy in 2024 will be shaped by US interest rates, oil prices, and China's economic performance. Despite a more resilient global economy in 2023 than expected, with inflation falling without significant unemployment increases, challenges remain. The OECD forecasts a slowdown in global output in 2024 due to high interest rates curbing inflation and economic activity, predicting a global GDP growth of 2.7%, slightly lower than 2023's 2.9%. Growth is not expected to rise until 2025. The outlook reflects the long-term impacts of COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict on energy prices. While economic predictions can be uncertain, key factors to watch include the interrelation of major macroeconomic variables like interest rates, oil prices, and China's economy.

The widely predicted 2023 recession didn't occur, defying forecasts including those from Federal Reserve economists. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the unexpected robust economic performance. This resilience was attributed to the unique challenges posed by the pandemic and the substantial $5 trillion fiscal stimulus. Forecasting difficulties arose from the lack of historical parallels. A key factor was the resilient U.S. consumer, who, buoyed by pandemic-era savings and government support, spent more than anticipated. Revised estimates showed that consumers were in a stronger financial position than previously thought, contributing to higher spending power and averting the anticipated downturn.

India's gold market sees subdued demand in Q4 due to high prices, influenced by geopolitical risks, rate cut expectations, and a strong USD. Despite the RBI halting gold purchases and soft domestic demand causing a local discount, gold ETFs attracted sustained inflows, with November seeing US$47 million. High prices are expected to dampen physical gold demand, except for bridal jewelry. Investment demand may rise due to global uncertainties and positive domestic economic growth. The LBMA Gold Price PM rose 11% since October, mirrored by Indian gold prices, while other currencies saw lesser increases due to their strength against the USD.

Gold traders flocked to jewelry stores in Vietnam amid volatile prices, with over 30 customers seen at a Saigon Jewelry Company store in Ho Chi Minh City. Prices fluctuated significantly, leading some to sell early out of decline fears. Mi Hong chain also experienced high traffic, though less than during the recent price peak. Vietnam's gold prices, which surged to a record high earlier in the week, have since dropped, causing uncertainty among buyers and sellers. In Hanoi, the Prime Minister's directive to align domestic with global rates spurred early morning sales, noting that local prices are about 30% higher than global rates.

We are entering the third and final phase of the precious metals bull market.

As 2023 ends, Shenzhen, traditionally known for technology, is rapidly gaining recognition as a new fashion hub in China, especially in jewelry. The city's large jewelry market experienced a significant increase in consumer interest and demand. Shenzhen hosted major fashion events like the Shenzhen Eyewear Fashion Week and the China International Brand Underwear Fair, attracting global fashion buyers and featuring top brands like Dior and Versace Home. This transformation into a fashion center is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, evident in its diverse fashion sectors including high-fashion, luxury watches, and designer eyewear. Shenzhen's fashion industry is notably robust, with over 2,500 apparel companies and a 42% share in global watch production, highlighting its emerging status in the global fashion landscape.

Historical data from the World Gold Council indicates that gold typically fares well in January, with an average return of 1.79% since 1971 and positive gains in nearly 60% of Januaries since then. This trend strengthens in the 21st century, with gold rising in 70% of Januaries since 2000. Key factors contributing to this include yearly portfolio rebalancing, a seasonal dip in real yields, and increased demand for gold in East Asia prior to the Lunar New Year. However, the Council cautions that this trend is not absolute, noting years like 2021 and 2022 when gold didn't rise in January, often correlating with a strengthening US dollar. As 2024 approaches, the pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes and potential cuts could weaken the dollar, potentially setting up gold for another strong January performance.

In 2023, gold prices soared to new highs, bolstered by its status as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties. The metal’s demand rose as investors sought protection against inflation and currency devaluation, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market volatility. Despite some fluctuations, gold maintained an overall upward trend, reflecting a complex mix of central bank policies and global economic factors. Looking into 2024, gold continues to be viewed as a vital asset for hedging against financial risks and maintaining portfolio stability.

Sometimes one single solitary event or individual can characterize an entire year — be it an outbreak, economic downturn, or a political uprising. However, 2023 was marked by a confluence of varying influences. Economic concerns and rising prices dominated public discourse initially, before the conflict in Gaza shifted global focus. Amid these developments, the prospect of Donald Trump's presidential run was a constant presence. The New York Times has presented a series of ten graphs offering insight into the defining moments of 2023.

We've reached the end of another year. A new year is always a good time for reflection. And maybe even some resolutions. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the trajectory of gold as we enter the new year, explains an economic truth, offers some thoughts on New Year's resolutions, and makes a big announcement.