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    Fed's Kashkari: The US Economy Remains In A "Deep Hole"
Jun 29, 2021 - 11:56:26 PDT
Fed's Kashkari: I Do Not Wish To Prematurely Cut Off The Recovery.
The economist Rudi Dornbusch once said that “in economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” That describes the situation we face today very well. The pandemic has accelerated pre-existing trends at a pace we could never have imagined.
    Warnings From Behind The Curtain: Lance Roberts
Jun 29, 2021 - 11:17:27 PDT
A review of some "behind the curtain" warnings suggests that current market exuberance has reached extremes where outcomes are less than favorable.
For years, analysts have predicted that rising world oil consumption would peak and start declining in the coming decades. But with a recent string of setbacks for big oil companies and the rapid advance of electric vehicles, some now say that “peak oil” is already here.
Experts say problems that are cropping up now could become more pronounced as the summer goes on.
The US lags behind China and Europe when it comes to production and uptake of electric vehicles domestically, according to a new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation -- and that gap widened from 2017 to 2020.
    A Falling Star: The U.S.A. and Deflation
Jun 29, 2021 - 09:37:58 PDT
This chart is a reminder that, under the hood of the U.S. economy, the engine is sputtering.
    Lumber's Deflation Could Be a Sign of What's Coming
Jun 29, 2021 - 09:26:41 PDT
That will mean some prices continue to rise but others, especially where there is speculative excess involved (residential property?), experiencing a deflation like lumber.
It’s not even close. Texas stands head and shoulders above all other states in the race to attract corporate headquarters exiting California, with Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin topping the list of destinations within the Lone Star State.
As San Francisco tries to bounce back from the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, crime and homelessness now rank among the highest levels of concerns among local residents, many who are contemplating relocating, according to a new poll.
In the wake of the pandemic, a growing number of workers are rethinking what they want in a job and a lifestyle.
    Housing Headaches Are Shifting to the Rental Market
Jun 29, 2021 - 08:53:50 PDT
A return to normal means prices will be going up for apartment dwellers, adding to inflation and complicating the Fed's job.
With BofA predicting that the US is facing a period of "transitory hyperinflation", one which could last as long as 4 years, as a result of soaring commodity prices in everything from metals to food and beyond, in what increasingly more warn is a stagflationary burst right out of the 1970s playbook...
The White House last week had to reassure Republicans that Biden would not veto the compromise deal. Now he’s facing anger from liberals who want Biden to go beyond the compromise.
    Comex June/July 2021 Update
June 29, 2021
This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. The Comex allows investors/traders to gain exposure to commodities using futures contracts. Contracts can settle for delivery of the physical commodity. Tracking the demand for physical metal can give better insight into the market. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The Federal Reserve is growing “the slosh” again with its Temporary Open Market Operations (TOMO). The New York Fed conducts overnight reverse repo operations each day as a means to hel…
    Housing Bubble Gets Bigger!
Jun 29, 2021 - 08:07:47 PDT
The US housing bubble (again) keeps growing! According to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller national home price index for April, house prices grew at a rate of 14.59% year-over-year. And keeps on …
Note: By definition, inflation is an expansion of the money supply. In this article inflation will be used interchangeably with rising prices (usually as a result of money supply expansion)
When the economy was shut down in March 2020, the government responded with massive fiscal and monetary support. The fiscal stimulus totaled $4T+ in relief packages. All of this spending was paid for with debt being issued by the Treasury. The Treasury mostly issued short-term debt. With rates being held at zero by the Fed, and strong demand for short-term debt, it made sense to quickly raise cash using Treasury Bills as interest free loans.
South Asia’s reliance on state-led development is concealing vulnerabilities to growing levels of unsustainable debt that could lead to financial crises, the World Bank warned.Governments in the region, including India and Pakistan, are exposed to the risk of “hidden debt” via funding guarantees by state-owned banks and enterprises...
So why do we need continued record handouts?