Precious metals news

In the latest episode of the World Gold Council's Unearthed podcast, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Dr. Trevor Keel, Director of Material Value Ltd and Consultant for the World Gold Council, for a deep dive into gold's integral role in the evolution of technology. The episode takes listeners through a journey of gold's past, present, and future in technological applications, concluding with intriguing insights into how gold continues to shape research and development, driving forward the frontiers of emerging technologies.

Gold prices remained constrained within a narrow range, marking a potential second consecutive week of decline, amidst market anticipation of further insights on U.S. interest rates. Investors are keenly focusing on upcoming key inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting. Contrastingly, copper prices are on track for a robust weekly performance, buoyed by China's latest stimulus measures that bolstered demand prospects for the metal. The improvement in risk appetite, spurred by China's economic actions and record highs on Wall Street, has somewhat weakened gold's appeal. Additionally, a strengthening dollar, following better-than-expected gross domestic product data, has applied pressure on gold, maintaining its price within a $2,000- $2,050 range.

Jeffrey Gundlach, a renowned billionaire hedge-fund manager, recommends considering cash and gold investments amidst a market characterized by 'grabby' investor behavior. In a recent interview, Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital, observed that market momentum, rather than expectations of a soft economic landing, has been driving recent bond rebounds and record highs in the S&P 500. He noted the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot in November halted the rise in real yields, sparking a rally across various asset classes, initially focused on 'blue chip' investments. Gundlach, who advocated for bond investments during their struggles in 2022 and 2023, pointed out the abnormality in the market as blue-chip assets, including the S&P 500, become overvalued. His suggestion to shift focus towards cash and gold reflects a strategy for navigating the current unpredictable and overextended market conditions.

Schroders Investment Insights highlights a remarkable trend in the gold market: despite the significant rise in real interest rates in the US over 2022 and 2023, gold prices have remained near all-time highs, currently around US$2000 per ounce. This trend breaks the conventional pattern where gold prices typically fall with rising interest rates and positive real rates on government bonds. Schroders attributes this anomaly to a shift in gold's behavior post-2008 Global Financial Crisis. Following the crisis, quantitative easing policies and concerns over long-term monetary debasement strengthened gold's appeal as a monetary asset rather than just a commodity.

China's gold imports surged to a historic high in response to economic uncertainties, with a record import of 1,447 tonnes of gold for non-monetary use in the last year, valued at US$90 billion—a nearly ninefold increase in value from three years prior. This spike reflects the Chinese middle class's efforts to protect their wealth amidst a faltering property market, a declining stock market, and a weak yuan. The total imported gold, used primarily for jewelry and other non-monetary purposes, surpassed the previous record set in 2018. Domestically, gold sales also soared, with a notable increase in gold jewelry consumption and a significant uptick in gold bar and coin purchases. These trends underscore a growing preference for gold as a safe-haven asset among Chinese investors, driven by a desire for financial security in turbulent economic times.

Oil is poised for its most significant weekly increase since October, driven by a combination of geopolitical conflicts and economic stimulus prospects. Despite a slight dip, Brent crude is trading near $82 a barrel, having broken out of its previous range and surpassed its key 200-day moving average for the first time since November. Contributing factors include heightened Middle East tensions, particularly US strikes on Iran-backed forces in Yemen and drone attacks on Russian refineries. Additionally, a larger-than-expected draw in US oil stockpiles and China's government stimulus measures to bolster its economy have supported the price increase. However, the potential for increased output from non-OPEC countries and slowing demand in major markets like India is making traders cautious. This complex mix of geopolitical risks and economic policies is currently the primary support for the ongoing surge in oil prices.

The Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge shows a notable slowdown in December 2023. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index indicated a monthly rise of just 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.9%, excluding volatile food and energy costs. This data, aligning with Dow Jones economists' predictions, marks a decrease from the 3.2% annual rate observed previously, reaching the lowest point since March 2021. Even when accounting for fluctuating food and energy prices, the overall inflation rate mirrored these trends, maintaining a steady 2.6% on a yearly basis. This deceleration in core inflation suggests a pivotal shift in the economic landscape, potentially impacting Federal Reserve policies and investor strategies in the gold and silver markets.

The Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), witnessed a surge in demand, reaching a record $167.8 billion in borrowing as of January 24. This spike, approximately $6.3 billion higher than the previous week, came just before the Fed raised the program’s interest rate to prevent financial institutions from exploiting its favorable terms for arbitrage. Initially, the BTFP's borrowing rate of around 4.88% was significantly lower than the rate for parking reserves at the Fed, leading to a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for institutions. However, this loophole was closed with the Fed's decision to align the BTFP borrowing rate with that of reserve balances, effectively ending the advantageous trade.

The Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), witnessed a surge in demand, reaching a record $167.8 billion in borrowing as of January 24. This spike, approximately $6.3 billion higher than the previous week, came just before the Fed raised the program’s interest rate to prevent financial institutions from exploiting its favorable terms for arbitrage. Initially, the BTFP's borrowing rate of around 4.88% was significantly lower than the rate for parking reserves at the Fed, leading to a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for institutions. However, this loophole was closed with the Fed's decision to align the BTFP borrowing rate with that of reserve balances, effectively ending the advantageous trade.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has resisted market pressures for swift interest rate cuts, maintaining a cautious monetary policy approach despite Europe's faltering economy and market anticipation for more affordable credit to stimulate business and stock market activities. ECB President Christine Lagarde, affirming the decision to keep the benchmark rate at a high 4%, stated that discussions about rate reductions are premature. While markets expected a rate cut as early as April, Lagarde emphasized that any future decisions will be based on the latest economic data rather than a fixed timetable, although she hinted at a possible cut in the summer.

It is truly amazing the amount of U.S. Treasuries that were "Retired & Reissued" last year.  It's even worse when we compare it to the annual amount before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.  Also, why did the U.S. M2 Money Supply contract since 2022... Fed QT?  Nope...

Many people think the Hunt Brothers were responsible for manipulating gold. But the truth is, they were framed...

Bill Gross, renowned as the "Bond King" and a billionaire co-founder of Pimco, expressed significant concerns about the current state of the stock market and the broader U.S. economy. Highlighting overextended stock valuations, he warned of a potential major recession if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates this year. Gross pointed out the incongruity of the S&P 500's record highs, given a price-to-earnings ratio around 19 and a real interest rate of 1.8%. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, from nearly zero to over 5% since early 2022 to tackle inflation, have not led to a material decrease in stock valuations. This situation, Gross argues, risks a debt spiral and necessitates a shift towards safer assets, potentially impacting investments in stocks versus traditional safe havens like bonds, gold, and silver.

A Yahoo Finance article revealed a significant decline in consumer confidence among American families earning under $100,000. Despite the inflation rate dropping to 3.4% in December 2023 from a peak of 7.2% in December 2021, high interest rates have escalated the cost of mortgages, credit card debt, car loans, and other expenses. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, peaking at 5.25-5.5%, have intensified financial burdens. Although average hourly earnings rose by 15% from December 2020 to December 2023, inflation outpaced wage growth, affecting the ability of many to afford necessities​

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s last round of hikes would lead you to believe. 

Ron Paul criticizes the Federal Reserve's policies for exacerbating income inequality and inflation. He argues that the Fed's role in manipulating the market disproportionately benefits the wealthy, leading to a decrease in purchasing power for middle- and working-class Americans. Paul calls for an end to the Fed and government programs that favor crony capitalism, suggesting a return to free market principles​

The four largest U.S. banks have reported a significant increase in credit card expenditures in 2023, continuing an upward trajectory that began in 2020. Notably, JPMorgan Chase observed a 9% increase in credit card spending, reaching $1.2 trillion. This trend is mirrored at other major banks like Wells Fargo, with a 15% rise. More concerning is the growing trend of delayed repayments, as indicated by a 14% jump in unpaid balances at JPMorgan and a 9% increase at Bank of America. These patterns, coupled with rising delinquency rates since 2021, signal potential economic pressures and the need for prudent financial strategies in the years ahead.

In the evolving landscape of wealth preservation, Bitcoin emerges as a novel alternative alongside traditional assets like gold and silver. While these precious metals have long been the cornerstone for securing wealth, the advent of digital currencies offers a modern choice. Post-World War II saw the transition of global currencies from a gold standard to fiat systems, leading to debates about the stability of government-issued currencies. Bitcoin, operating independently of government and central bank control and with a capped supply, presents itself as an additional option for those seeking to diversify their safe-haven assets. This development reflects an expanding array of choices for investors in preserving their wealth.

Gain insights into the complexities of the current real estate landscape and the potential consequences for both investors and the broader economy.

Oil prices have reached an eight-week high, driven by a significant drop in U.S. stockpiles and China's introduction of additional economic stimulus. West Texas Intermediate crude surpassed $76 a barrel, marking the highest level since early December. The U.S. witnessed its largest weekly decline in total oil stockpiles since 2016, with crude inventories dropping by over 9 million barrels. This reduction, coupled with China's recent decision to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks, signals a potential boost in energy consumption from the world's largest crude importer. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation, noting that geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and potential further support measures from China could continue to impact oil markets significantly. While Citigroup Inc. cautions that a spike to $90 a barrel is not their main expectation, they acknowledge it as a possibility if current tensions escalate.