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In January, retail sales experienced a significant decline of 0.8%, indicating a potential warning signal for the economy. This drop, reported by the Commerce Department, surpassed the modest 0.3% decrease economists had predicted, reflecting a more substantial consumer pullback than anticipated. Despite seasonal adjustments, the decrease was even evident when excluding auto sales, which fell by 0.6% against an expected increase. This trend suggests consumer spending is not keeping pace with inflation, as evidenced by the year-over-year sales growth of merely 0.6%. Such a sharp reduction in consumer spending could have implications for economic health, particularly if this trend continues.
During this week's Super Bowl ads, Biden slammed greedy corporations for inflation. In his most recent podcast, Peter explains exactly what’s happening with inflation, and why Biden’s blame game has it backward.
With the Gold price finally surpassing $2,000, what will it take to get it over $3,000?  That all depends upon important Gold Market fundamentals that I discuss in detail in this Video Report.  Although, we will probably haven't seen the lows yet in the gold price, especially during a significant market correction...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr commented on the economic challenges ahead, noting the U.S.'s path back to 2% inflation "may be a bumpy one." Despite a year-on-year consumer price increase of 3.1% and a core inflation rate holding steady at 3.9%, largely propelled by rising shelter costs, Barr expressed a cautious optimism. He reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to steering the economy back to a 2% inflation target. However, he emphasized that the journey towards this goal is anticipated to be fraught with obstacles, as underscored by the latest data.
Japan's financial leaders have raised concerns over the swift and speculative decline of the yen, which recently crossed the 150 mark against the dollar, posing risks to its trade-dependent economy. This warning came as the dollar reached a three-month high against the yen following U.S. inflation data for January, which exceeded expectations and bolstered the belief that the Federal Reserve might maintain current interest rate levels into March. This situation highlights the delicate balance between national economic interests and global currency markets, particularly how external factors like U.S. monetary policy can influence the value of currencies like the yen and affect economies reliant on international trade.
    January Inflation Breakdown
Feb 14, 2024 - 10:50:59 PST
CNBC shows the inflation breakdown for January 2024 in one chart. The CPI rose by 3.1% in January and workers’ buying power has increased each month since May. However, there were a few potentially worrying signs under the surface.
As the Federal Reserve kicked off 2024 nearly achieving its inflation target, officials remain hesitant to lower interest rates due to the persistent risk of inflation exceeding their 2% goal. Recent inflation data, particularly concerning consumer prices excluding food and energy, rose unexpectedly in January, suggesting businesses, especially within the services sector, still possess significant pricing power. This development has dampened hopes for an imminent easing of monetary policy. The Fed's cautious stance is further reinforced by various uncertainties, including the robustness of the economy and geopolitical tensions, which have influenced their decision to adopt a more deliberate approach towards adjusting interest rate policies.
Gold miner SSR Mining suspended production at a mine in eastern Turkey after a landslide, which left at least nine miners missing. The disaster also sent the stock down more than 50% in its Toronto-listed shares.
    Zimbabwe Will Attempt to Create Gold-Backed Currency
Feb 14, 2024 - 07:08:48 PST
On Monday Zimbabwe’s government said it plans to introduce a gold-backed currency to replace the country’s nearly worthless dollar. Minister for Finance and Economic Development Mthuli Ncube told reporters in an online press conference that Zimbabwe was making the move to ensure sustained growth. “Going forward, we want to make sure that the growth we have achieved so far — which is very strong — is maintained and even increased,” he said. “We can only do that if we have further stability in the domestic currency. ... And the way to do that is perhaps to link the exchange rate to some hard asset such as gold.”
    The Politicos Trading Gold Stocks
February 14, 2024
When members of Congress aren’t passing laws, holding committee meetings, or more cynically fundraising endless dollars, some of them choose to pass the time by trading stocks. And for whatever reason, keen insight or perhaps insider trading, members of Congress tend to beat the market.
The situation couldn't be worse for the U.S. Shale Gas Industry as the natgas price Plunges to a 25-year low.  With Europe and the U.S. Natgas Inventories hitting the highest levels in the past five years, this has caused the natural gas price to fall to $1.61 today...
    BRICS: Scotiabank Says US Dollar To Fall in 2024
Feb 13, 2024 - 12:53:16 PST
Scotiabank has forecasted a downturn for the US Dollar in 2024, influenced by the strengthening of the BRICS alliance and ongoing global inflation trends. Over the past year, the BRICS countries have seen an increase in their economic significance, partly due to Western sanctions which have accelerated their de-dollarization efforts. These developments are expected to further diminish the value of the US Dollar, particularly in its exchange rates against other major global currencies. Scotiabank's analysis suggests that the concerted efforts of the BRICS nations to reduce dependency on the US Dollar, combined with inflationary pressures, will contribute to the dollar's depreciation in the upcoming year.
During President Joe Biden's tenure, over 3.7 million borrowers have seen their student loans forgiven, totaling $136.6 billion in relief. The Supreme Court thwarted Biden's proposal to cancel up to $400 billion for millions of Americans, prompting his administration to leverage every available avenue within its existing authority to reduce student debt burdens. The administration's proactive review of borrower accounts continues to identify those eligible for forgiveness, marking a period of unprecedented loan cancellation activity.
(Bloomberg) -- The deficit for the first four months of the 2024 fiscal year reached $532 billion, or 16% more than recorded in the same period in the prior year, according to data from the Treasury Department released Monday showed. Interest costs in the four months through January were $357 billion, a 37% jump from 2023.
    Gold - When to Exit?
February 13, 2024
When clients ask about the timing of selling their gold, I generally respond to their question with a question: "Do you have upcoming liquidity needs?" or "Is there a productive investment opportunity to deploy your capital?"
Gold has dropped below $2,000/oz as silver tests support at $22.25 after recent U.S. inflation data was higher than anticipated. Meanwhile, platinum pulled back below the $880 level.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indices experienced significant declines following the release of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data for January. Despite a modest easing of inflation rates, the figures remained persistently high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% from the previous month, surpassing economists' expectations for a slowdown to 2.9% annually and a 0.2% monthly increase. This unexpected inflation persistence led to a market downturn, with the Dow dropping by 490 points (or 1.3%), and similar declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The anticipation built around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, now largely expected by traders to commence in June or July, reflects the market's reaction to inflation trends and monetary policy prospects.
The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers every month. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going, and the surplus or deficit.
This month saw a $22B deficit.
    NYCB Shares Close Lower as Recent Gains Disappear
Feb 13, 2024 - 07:18:52 PST
New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) experienced a volatile trading day, ultimately closing with a slight decline of 0.2% at $4.89, despite an initial surge of over 7% earlier. This change reflects the bank's ongoing efforts to regain investor trust following a surprising quarterly loss reported on January 31, attributed to its loans connected to the troubled U.S. commercial real estate market. Additionally, the bank's decision to cut its dividend has played a significant role in the recent share price volatility. These moves are part of NYCB's strategy to stabilize its stock price and reassure shareholders of its financial health and strategic direction amid challenges in the real estate sector.
The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a hotter than expected outcome, defying anticipations for a significant decrease in the year-over-year inflation rate. Instead of dropping to the forecasted 2.9% from the previous 3.4%, the CPI saw a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, dampening hopes for inflation cooling to below 3%. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3%, surpassing the expected 0.2%.