Precious metals news

Despite a recent uptick in inflation, the consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that the Federal Reserve will enact three rate cuts this year and another four in 2025. The expectation is for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the current rate between 5.25% and 5.5% in their next meeting, marking a fifth period of steadiness, with the initial reduction anticipated in June. A strong majority of these economists foresee at least three cuts in 2024, although over a third predict two or fewer.

Copper's price has leapt over the $9,000 mark, buoyed by a near 5% rise this week, thanks to looming supply shortages. This rebound snaps a long period of stagnation, sparking optimism that we might be steering clear of the global economic downturn's worst, especially for copper. This metal's demand is skyrocketing due to its critical role in the booming electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.

Goldman Sachs' CEO, David Solomon, is eyeing a prosperous 2024, banking on a surge in capital markets activity to drive gains. In his annual shareholder letter, Solomon highlighted the bank's sharpened focus on its bread-and-butter: global banking and markets, along with asset and wealth management. He points out that the cost of capital has significantly risen, a shift markets are currently navigating, thanks to the end of lenient monetary policies.

The Bank of Japan is reportedly gearing up to bid farewell to its negative interest rate policy during the March 18-19 meeting, per Jiji news agency. This potential shift comes as major companies announce significant wage hikes, surpassing last year's increases. Such positive salary trends could provide the BOJ the flexibility it needs to adjust its cornerstone policy.

Gold's value has skyrocketed, reaching unparalleled peaks amid a storm of geopolitical unrest, anticipation of interest rate cuts, and a surge in algorithmic trading. Investors now face the pivotal question: Will gold's lustrous rally continue or dim? Currently, gold futures are dazzling at $2,164.5 per troy ounce, marking a 9.1% increase over the past month and a 14% rise year-over-year. While some experts predict even loftier heights for gold in the coming months, there's a camp cautioning a potential short-term retreat in its value.

JD and Joel discuss hotter-than-expected inflation data, Peter's recent podcast, TikTok, Twitter, and gold and silver price action.

While India imported a record stunning amount of silver last month, the Wholesale-Dealer Retail Bullion Industry continues to hemorrhage as the silver price heads even higher.  Unfortunately, virtually NOBODY is talking about this except a few highly respected individuals in the industry...

Doomsday preppers, known for their readiness for any catastrophe, are increasingly turning to gold bars as a staple in their survival kits. This trend towards gold—and silver—isn't just a reaction to favorable market conditions. Experts interpret the growing interest in these metals as a reflection of broader societal anxieties and a search for stability amidst uncertainty. Timothy Morton, a philosopher and ecologist, captures the sentiment: "In a world perceived as unstable, people crave something enduring."

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the potential for a turbulent decrease in inflation, despite recent signs of persistent price pressures in the U.S. economy. In a FOX Business interview, Yellen addressed stagflation worries, asserting that the battle against inflation is ongoing and has not hit a standstill. Yellen emphasized, "Expect fluctuations, but the overall trend is promising." She also reiterated President Biden's commitment to tackling the high costs affecting Americans, signaling that smoothing out inflation remains a top government priority.

As interest-rate reductions remain off the agenda, the US Federal Reserve's attention turns towards moderating the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) during its upcoming policy meeting. QT involves scaling back the Fed's substantial securities holdings, accumulated to bolster the economy previously. A definitive strategy for this slowdown is expected by mid-year, underscoring that the impact of where QT ultimately ends is more critical than the rate at which it proceeds.

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor, voiced concerns over the potential for both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump to significantly increase US debt. Speaking on Bloomberg Television's Wall Street Week, Rogoff criticized the casual stance of Washington towards national debt, cautioning against the expectation that the era of ultra-low interest rates will return. Despite the difficulty in pinpointing a debt ceiling, with projections suggesting federal debt could rise to 116% of GDP by 2034 from today's 99%, Rogoff emphasizes the impending challenges of maintaining such high debt levels.

Wall Street's economic forecasters, who were once bracing for a recession, have largely reversed their predictions—a shift that raises eyebrows among some market veterans. This newfound optimism is eerily similar to the mood in 2007, just before the financial crisis, according to Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Despite recent stock market highs and strong data on nonfarm payrolls and GDP, Edwards cautions against letting these bright spots overshadow weaker economic signals.

Gold's journey has hit a new milestone, soaring to an all-time high of $2,195 this week. But gold in America has a troubled past...

At the end of 2022, investors all around the world who had bet big on cryptocurrency and had their cryptocurrency stored by the crypto exchange, FTX, received bad news. Sam Bankman-Fried and other leaders of the exchange had been using cryptocurrency that was supposedly stored by the exchange to make bets on financial markets. And the FTX leadership was bad at trading and racked up huge losses. FTX declared bankruptcy and many of FTX leaders were convicted of financial crimes. For the investors of FTX, it was a painful experience that came from betting on cryptocurrency and the viability of crypto institutions that managed such assets. Expected losses were claimed to be in the billions.

Reuters this week reported that the divergence between IEA and OPEC demand numbers is the largest in 16 years. The IEA predicted last year that oil demand would peak before 2030. OPEC has a vested interest in stronger global demand, so there may well be an overestimation bias in its outlooks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. tags gold as its top commodity pick, forecasting a potential surge to $2,500 per ounce this year, fueled by market enthusiasm. Natasha Kaneva, the bank's lead commodities researcher, highlighted the metal's recent peak at $2,195.15, suggesting a climb to $2,500 is within reach if inflation moderates and job growth stabilizes. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's expected shift to a more accommodative monetary policy could further elevate gold's attractiveness against yield-generating investments, pending evidence of inflation aligning closer to the Fed's 2% goal.

In a significant move, India has now permitted its Reserve Bank (RBI) to import gold without incurring import levies, a late Tuesday government notification revealed. Traditionally, gold importers in India, the world’s second-largest consumer of the metal, face charges like the basic customs duty and Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC). The RBI's gold reserves stood at 800.79 metric tonnes as of September 2023, with holdings both within the country and abroad, highlighting the central bank's substantial investment in gold.

Gold's price soared to an unprecedented $2,195 per troy ounce, marking a significant breakout from its decade-long stagnation. This rally, partly fueled by a buying spree from China, is also getting a boost from traditional market drivers aligning favorably. With these factors in play, gold's journey to new heights is well underway, signaling a bullish trend for the precious metal.

At the MIPIM property conference in Cannes, Brookfield Asset Management's Bradley Weismiller revealed a striking issue: the U.S. office market is now the most oversupplied globally. According to Weismiller, this imbalance is a product of excessive construction in certain areas, coupled with a shift in how these spaces are utilized. He highlighted that the U.S. market's overexpansion and its impact on property investors, who are now grappling with heightened levels of debt, underscore a pressing need for strategic reassessment in the real estate sector.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suggests the possibility of a US recession remains, advising caution against prematurely cutting interest rates. Speaking at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit, Dimon noted that while a "soft landing" is anticipated by many, he believes its likelihood is significantly lower, raising concerns of potential stagflation. He also mentioned the distortion of economic indicators by COVID-19, advocating for a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve for clearer signals before making rate adjustments.